Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
452 FXUS66 KHNX 212118 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 218 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A warming trend will continue this weekend into early next week with a 15 to 45 percent probability of temperatures reaching the triple digits in the San Joaquin Valley on Tuesday. Dry conditions will prevail during this time. 2. With the warming trend over the weekend and early next week, relative humidity values will drop which will lead to elevated grass fire concerns, especially in eastern Kern County. 3. A cooling trend will take place between Wednesday and Friday, however temperatures will remain above normal and dry conditions will continue. && .DISCUSSION... The upper level low pressure system impacting central California in the latter portions of this week has progressed eastwards over the southwestern United States and is currently located in the Four Corners region. A building upper level ridge is anticipated to replace the receding low through the weekend, however, a cut-off shortwave trough appears favorable to develop early Monday morning. This trough has a low to moderate probability (15 to 45 percent) to bring triple digit temperatures once again to the central valley as winds aloft shift towards the East/Southeast for Monday and Tuesday. Warmer, drier conditions will develop across the area as a result of this synoptic pattern, with the following showing the probabilities to reach or exceed 95 degrees or more for locations in the San Joaquin Valley. Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Bakersfield 0% 15% 75% 95% 65% Coalinga 0% 5% 65% 90% 40% Fresno 0% 30% 85% 97% 70% Hanford 10% 55% 95% 100% 75% Madera 10% 40% 90% 98% 70% Merced 5% 30% 75% 96% 55% Visalia 2% 15% 80% 95% 65% Maximum temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be around six to ten degrees above season averages for this time of year. In the midweek period, an upper level trough will approach the Pacific Northwest region, with a weak influence over central California. Winds aloft will shift towards the Southwest ahead of the trough, allowing for some relief from the near triple digit heat as daytime heating will allow air to rise and disperse. However, the warmer tropical air from the Southwest is expected to keep temperatures over the area above normal through next weekend. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 09/20/2024 13:57 EXPIRES: 09/21/2024 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public/aviation...SM IDSS.............VJP weather.gov/hanford