Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
594 FXUS66 KHNX 201905 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1205 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in Kern County will continue to decrease through this evening. 2. A warming trend is in store this weekend into early next week with a 10 to 30 percent probability of triple digits on Tuesday. Dry conditions will prevail during this time. 3. With the warming trend next week, humidity values will drop which will lead to elevated grass fire concerns, especially in eastern Kern County. && .DISCUSSION... Current radar shows showers and isolated thunderstorm activity decreasing in the Kern County desert. Although some stronger cells remain just to the east in San Bernardino County. Expect the threat of showers and thunderstorms to last until early this evening in this area. Portions of the southern Sierra Nevada could see some cells pop up later this afternoon, as residual moisture from the upper-level low remains. Meanwhile, the upper-level low will continue to move inland over Southern California this evening and into the Desert Southwest later tonight. Today`s highs will trend slightly warmer than yesterday`s, as latest 24 hour trends are around one to four degrees higher than this time yesterday. Although, temperatures will still be at least several degrees below seasonal averages. A ridge of high pressure will begin to build over the Western U.S. on Saturday. The warming trend continues this weekend, as highs return to the lower 90`s at the warmest locations, including in the SJ Valley and the Kern County desert. Further warming occurs on Sunday into early next week. The threat of triple digit heat remains for Tuesday with the probabilities around 10 to 30 percent. Otherwise, the chances for highs of at least 95 degrees are as high as 45 to 75 percent on Tuesday and also Monday. A slight lowering of temperatures occurs on Wednesday through next Friday, although we`re seeing probabilities on Wednesday close to Tuesday`s for a reading of at least 95 degrees in the warmest locations. Probabilities of highs of 90 degrees or higher lower noticeably Thursday. The ridge of high pressure begins to weaken by then, and the longwave pattern trends towards a zonal flow over the Golden State. && .AVIATION... MVFR with local IFR ceilings/visibility possible and light SHRA until 03Z Saturday for the Kern County mountains and desert. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ BSO/SM weather.gov/hanford