372
FXUS66 KHNX 171027
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
327 AM PDT Mon Jun 17 2024


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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for strong gusty winds
coupled with low relative humidity that will bring Elevated Fire
Weather concerns to the Kern County mountains, West Hills, Kern
Desert and the San Joaquin Valley through Tuesday morning at
8am.
2. A cooling trend will bring temperatures closer to seasonal
averages for today. Monday temperatures will be around 3 to 5
degrees below normal.
3. Strong to damaging wind gusts will develop along the Mojave
Desert Slopes each afternoon and overnight through Monday night.
Afternoon and evening breezes will develop across the San
Joaquin Valley with locally gusty conditions near the passes of
the West Side Mountains through Tuesday morning at 5am.
4. Snowmelt from the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada,
will continue to result in dangerously cold and fast flows along
rivers and waterways.
5. Starting Tuesday a warming trend will begin with triple
digits anticipated starting Friday lasting through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The second of two low pressure systems moving through the
Pacific Northwest and lowering heights will have the cooldown
continuing through today with lower than normal temperatures
before a gradual warming trend begins tomorrow. High
temperatures throughout the San Joaquin Valley today have very
low probabilities (15 to 25 percent) of reaching even 90
degrees. These temperatures are roughly 4-7 degrees below normal
for this time of year.

These low pressure systems have brought cool, dry air into the
region alongside gusty winds. The gustiest winds will occur in
the usual windy places, the Mojave Desert Slopes. NBM
probabilities show a 70 to 100 percent chance of winds in the
desert slopes gusting to at least 60 mph through the early
morning today. As of 1:40 AM this morning, the Mojave weather
station has recorded a gust of 75 mph. The West Side Hills will
also experience gusty winds, with localized areas having a 65 to
85 percent chance of gusting to at least 40 mph. Winds in the
San Joaquin Valley will be breezy this afternoon and evening and
there is a 65 to 75 percent chance of winds gusting to at least
25 mph. These winds will all peak early this morning and then
pick back up again this afternoon and evening.

These winds combined with low relative humidity results in an
elevated risk for grass fires. Please see the Fire Weather
section below for more detailed information.

As the low pressure system begins tracking eastward and out of
the area of influence, a ridge will slowly begin to set up and
raise heights. Temperatures will start increasing tomorrow and
increase gradually as the ridge strengthens. By next weekend,
probabilities that we will see triple digits again are rising.
On Friday, there is a 30 to 40 percent chance of temperatures in
the San Joaquin Valley hitting 100 degrees. By Saturday, these
chances increase steeply to a 85 to 95 percent chance of the San
Joaquin Valley seeing 100 degrees. Stay tuned for more
information on this as we get closer to the weekend.

Snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada continues due to these increasing
temperatures, resulting in dangerously cold and swift waters
along rivers and waterways. Precautions when getting in these
bodies of water should be taken to ensure safety.

&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA interior for
the next 24 hours. Gusty winds will result in chances for
blowing dust in the Kern County Desert and West Side Hills
through late morning today and this afternoon and evening.
Additionally, reduced visibility will result around and near any
fires.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Minimum relative humidity values in the Kern County Mountains
and Desert and West Side Hills will hover around 10 to 15
percent. In the San Joaquin Valley, minimum relative humidity
will hover around 15 to 20 percent. These very low relative
humidities combined with the gusty conditions occurring through
early this morning, and this afternoon and evening have
resulted in an enhanced risk for grass fires, per the Storm
Prediction Center. This evening, there are local 60 to 80
percent chances of wind gusts above 25 mph combined with
relative humidity values less than 15 percent for the warning
area. As such, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the Kern
County Desert, West Side Hills, and San Joaquin Valley through
Tuesday morning at 8am.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  06/16/2024 12:51
EXPIRES: 06/17/2024 23:59
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ338.
Red Flag Warning until 8 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ579-580-596-597.
&&

$$

public/aviation/fire weather...AS
PIO/IDSS.......................VJP

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