671
FXUS64 KHUN 040544
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1244 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 918 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

An upper shortwave will continue to slowly make its way over the
Mississippi Valley tonight and into Tuesday. The base of the
shortwave looks to pivot over the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday
afternoon. Additionally, a large MCS is currently traversing
southeast over the ArkLaMiss region. The northern portion of this
may reach our western counties (NW AL) around 1AM, if it can stay
together. However, the northern extent of this system looks to be
much weaker than the southern, due to the higher instability and
shear values that the southern portion of the MCS is moving into.
If the northern extent doesn`t break apart, these showers may
contribute to the forecast low to medium (20-40%) chances of
showers (and perhaps a storm or two) for our local area during the
overnight hours. With elevated moisture, lows are only expected
to dip into the mid to upper 60s later tonight. Patchy fog
development is also possible overnight, especially for areas that
saw rain this afternoon and in the more sheltered spots and near
bodies of water.

Some model guidance then hints at a resurgence in shower/storm
activity Tuesday morning. For now, kept with persistence:
increasing shower and storm chances by mid-morning Tuesday
(medium to high chances; 50-80%). However, this will be reassessed
with the overnight forecast package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Increasing showers/tstms are expected Tue into Wed, as additional
weak upper shrtwvs traverse eastward across much of the region.
PWATs climbing to around 1.7-1.8 inches coupled with SBCAPE values
near 2-3K J/kg will result in the prob for multiple rounds of
heavy rainfall along with the potential for gusty outflow winds.
Minimal deep layer shear though should offset the prob for more
organized/stronger storms. Nevertheless, the potential for minor
flooding/ponding is possible thru mid week. High rain chances
(around 70-90%) are expected both Tue/Wed, with relatively medium
chances (50-60%) of showers/tstms possible Wed night, as buoyant
energy weakens just a bit. Given the increase in rainfall, highs
thru mid week look to trend more in the lower/mid 80s, while lows
thru Wed night remain predom in the mid/upper 60s. Rain chances
will begin to taper off to the S/E late Wed night, as a weak cold
front draped west to east drops into the Mid South/mid TN Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

By Thursday, the shortwave axis will be off the Atlantic Coast and a
sfc front will move its way through the area. This will bring an end
to showers and storms from north to south Thursday morning, but will
maintain low chance (20-30%) PoPs during the afternoon giving model
differences in timing at this range. Highs will be near seasonal
norms in the mid to upper 80s with clearing skies during the
afternoon. A stronger sfc front will arrive Friday, reinforcing dry
and cooler conditions as we head into the weekend. Temperatures will
be limited to the lower 80s Friday afternoon as sfc high pressure
drifts south. From there, we will stay under the influence of
northwest flow through the remainder of the long term forecast.
Overnight lows will be relatively chilly Friday night into Saturday
morning, falling into the upper 50s in the higher terrain and near 60
degrees elsewhere. Low chance PoPs (20-30%) will return late in the
weekend as a series of weak shortwaves are progged to move into the
area, also bringing better moisture. Expect highs in the low to mid
80s through the weekend with lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR and dry conditions at the start of this TAF, however some
showers are expected to reach the terminals overnight with the
system currently moving across MS. There will be periods of
showers and storms throughout the rest of the TAF and determining
the timing of breaks is difficult as high-res models are not in
agreement. Will monitor for any needed amendments.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...JMS