317
FXUS64 KHUN 061444
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
944 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 944 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A trough at 8h and 5h across AL into southeast LA will shift
southeast of the area today. Low clouds will gradually lift and
scatter out by midday into early afternoon, so we should have no
trouble reaching the middle to upper 80s this afternoon for highs.
Dew points will remain in the upper 60s to near 70 this afternoon
ahead of the cold front which is still in central IL and MO. Thus,
another muggy afternoon is anticipated. We will maintain just a
very low PoP in our southeast counties through early afternoon,
but at this point, confidence in development of showers and
thunderstorms is rather low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A drier airmass will begin to filter into the area on Friday, with
dew point temperatures likely falling into the 50s. A WNW flow
pattern aloft during the weekend will tend to keep temperatures a
bit lower than normal with dry conditions expected through
Saturday. On Sunday, a longwave upr trough will begin to amplify
in the East CONUS, with another cold front moving southward
through the Miss/OH/TN Valley regions. Showers and thunderstorms
ahead of this front could begin to impact the area as early as
Sunday morning. Instability on Sunday could be supportive of some
strong updrafts, but shear profiles again do not appear to be
overly supportive of strong thunderstorm organization. Most of the
activity will probably be concentrated during the
morning/afternoon period before the front crosses the area later
in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The afore-mentioned cold front will probably move southward
through the TN Valley, and perhaps even farther into the Southeast
and Gulf Coastal Plain region early next week. This solution is
supported generally by the latest 00Z operational guidance suite.
However, some of the global ensemble suite is not supportive of
this solution and tend to indicate the front may have slower
movement through the region, perhaps stalling in the vicinity of
the TN Valley. So, slight chance POPs were retained for the
period from Monday through Wed next week to account for this
uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Low stratus clouds with IFR and MVFR bases have developed across
the area early this morning and are impacting KHSV and KMSL TAF
sites. Eventual dissipation and/or lifting of the cloud bases is
expected, but confidence is low in exact timing. The TAF forecasts
hedged on the more optimistic side of the estimated timing
envelope, around 15-16Z. Afterwards, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....KDW
AVIATION...KDW