650
FXUS64 KHUN 141501
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1001 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1002 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Northwesterly flow at the upper-levels persists today in the wake
of the trough, just off the US east coast. Models indicate a ridge
to build just to the west of the area today, which should allow
for some covergence aloft. This process promotes synoptic-scale
subsidence of the air above the region and helps to strengthen
high pressure. Without any forcing mechanism, PoP remains very
low today, with only some lower-level cumulus and upper-level
cirrus throughout the day. Highs should quickly reach the low to
mid 90s by mid afternoon under mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies. Winds are forecast to remain light, around 5 mph from the
west-northwest by the afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

High pressure will begin to drift more into the Atlantic states
tonight into the weekend period, while the upper ridge pattern
builds more into the SE states. This should allow for slightly
warmer temps this weekend, as highs climb more into the mid 90s
Sat and especially Sun, while overnight lows tonight/Sat night
trend in the upper 60s/lower 70s. Even with a light return flow
pattern developing due to the high pressure moving east, skies
look to remain mostly clear/sunny thru the weekend period. A
slight increase in dew pts though will allow max heat indices to
reach 100F in some spots Sat afternoon. Max heat index readings
may then climb more into the 100-103F range later in the day Sun.
Light fog also remains possible both early Sat/Sun mornings,
although widespread dense fog is not anticipated at this point.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Muggy conditions will continue Sunday night with lows only in the
low/mid 70s. A deep southerly flow will help return more moisture to
the area, with area dewpoints on Monday rising to around 70. This
moisture will also result in an increase in cloud cover, which should
put a slight damper on very warm to hot conditions that have likely
occurred over the weekend. Highs to start the new work week should
rise into the lower 90s, with heat index values in the mid/upper 90s.
Daytime heating and resultant instability from higher moisture
values, will bring lower end (20-30%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the valley Mon afternoon. Strong upper level high
pressure over the region will help warm the mid troposphere, which
should help reduce rain chances Mon evening.

This strong and warm upper ridging is forecast to amplify over the
states north and east of here (Mid Atlantic to New England) in the
course of the new week. The 500mb reflection of the upper high has
maximum height values near the 600 decameter range Wed/Thu from
Pennsylvania to New Hampshire. With lower heights more to the south
and west, our daily high temperatures for Tue/Wed/Thu should range
mainly in the lower 90s, and lows in the lower 70s. Somewhat lower
levels of moisture should result in dry conditions for this
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

With high pressure remaining layered across much of the region,
VFR conds are generally expected thru the TAF period. Light/var
winds will also become NW around 5-7kt by early this afternoon.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Serre
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...09