202
FXUS64 KHUN 181233
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
733 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 733 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A few very light elevated showers remain across far northwest
Alabama this morning which may produce something around a trace of
precipitation in a couple spots. Scattered to broken decks of
mid/high clouds will continue to filter across the Tennessee
Valley today from convection over the ArkLaTex as the region
remains in between a strong ridge to the east and a weak trough to
the west. Still, enough breaks in the clouds (especially during
the afternoon) will allow for temperatures to warm into the upper
80s to lower 90s. Substance from the ridge to the east will
suppress convection in our area this afternoon despite the
southerly flow. Only minor tweaks made to the forecast this
morning based on current obs/trends as everything remains on
track.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Dry conditions appear more likely from tonight into the latter
half of this abbreviated workweek, as the influence of upper
ridging to our NE controls the general weather. With activity in
the tropics picking up, a plume of high altitude clouds should
remain over the area, resulting in mostly cloudy skies for the
Juneteenth/Wednesday. The clouds and an easterly flow bringing
slightly cooler air from the NW Atlantic basin westward, highs Wed
should range in the mid 80s to around 90. These clouds should
gradually thin, bringing generally sunny skies Thursday.
Temperatures should respond with highs warming into the lower 90s.
Low temperatures into the later portion of the week should range
from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A broad upper ridge axis is expected to be draped over the SE region
into the southern Atlantic Basin going into the end of the work week.
The subtropical high is also expected to be stretching westward into
much of the region, essentially deflecting any convection to the
north/south of the central TN Valley. This likewise should maintain
dry conditions into the upcoming weekend period. The presence of the
upper ridge pattern will also translate into seasonably hot temps for
the latter half of the forecast period. Afternoon highs look to climb
into the lower/mid 90s Fri, before temps rebound more into the mid to
perhaps upper 90s Sat/Sun. Dew pts though look to be suppressed to
the upper 60s/near 70F. This may at least keep max heat indices this
weekend around 98-102F. Nevertheless, those with outdoor activities
should exercise caution and stay hydrated. The upper ridge does look
to eventually weaken near the end of the period, as a weak frontal
boundary approaches from the north. This looks to bring low-medium
chances for showers/tstms (20-50%) back into the forecast late Sun
into Mon. This may also result in afternoon highs Mon more in the
lower/mid 90s. Overnight lows through early Mon look to fall mainly
into the mid 70s/near 70F for most spots.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VFR weather is expected for the next 24 hours, as upper level
ridging over the Mid Atlantic and a surface high off of the east
coast, brings a SE flow over the region. SE winds around 5kt this
morning should increase into the 5-15kt range late this morning
and in the afternoon. Winds should diminish to around 5kt tonight.
Daytime heating should result in a few/scattered low/mid altitude
clouds forming, as a canopy of high altitude clouds from the
tropics moves over this region.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...RSB