245
FXUS64 KHUN 180737
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
237 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

An area of isolated showers was heading to the WNW from portions
of far NW Georgia to the Tennessee River north of Guntersville.
This activity was showing a dissipating trend as it moved into a
more stable environment. Even in the short term, the models have a
variety of solutions regarding these showers -- from them not
existing to them holding together across northern Alabama, then
fading as they move over Tennessee later this morning. The NAM,
along with the RAP and HiRes AWR were showing these showers, while
the other models were not picking it up. Given the showers were
already in progress and have produced a trace of rain over parts
of north-central Alabama, have trended up with rain chances this
morning for parts of our central and eastern areas. Going with the
wetter model trends, have these showers ending towards noon.

Otherwise, strong upper level high pressure centered over VA/NC
border with 500mb heights in the 595 decameter range will amplify
to near 600 decameters over the next couple of days as it builds
somewhat more to the north, then it should slowly weaken and move
southward as we go to the weekend. With an exception to the above
mentioned chance of showers for our eastern areas early this
morning, the rest of the area should stay dry. High temperatures
later today with more clouds than sun and slightly lower upper
heights should "only" warm to around 90, a few or so degrees
cooler than the past few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Dry conditions appear more likely from tonight into the latter
half of this abbreviated workweek, as the influence of upper
ridging to our NE controls the general weather. With activity in
the tropics picking up, a plume of high altitude clouds should
remain over the area, resulting in mostly cloudy skies for the
Juneteenth/Wednesday. The clouds and an easterly flow bringing
slightly cooler air from the NW Atlantic basin westward, highs Wed
should range in the mid 80s to around 90. These clouds should
gradually thin, bringing generally sunny skies Thursday.
Temperatures should respond with highs warming into the lower 90s.
Low temperatures into the later portion of the week should range
from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A broad upper ridge axis is expected to be draped over the SE region
into the southern Atlantic Basin going into the end of the work week.
The subtropical high is also expected to be stretching westward into
much of the region, essentially deflecting any convection to the
north/south of the central TN Valley. This likewise should maintain
dry conditions into the upcoming weekend period. The presence of the
upper ridge pattern will also translate into seasonably hot temps for
the latter half of the forecast period. Afternoon highs look to climb
into the lower/mid 90s Fri, before temps rebound more into the mid to
perhaps upper 90s Sat/Sun. Dew pts though look to be suppressed to
the upper 60s/near 70F. This may at least keep max heat indices this
weekend around 98-102F. Nevertheless, those with outdoor activities
should exercise caution and stay hydrated. The upper ridge does look
to eventually weaken near the end of the period, as a weak frontal
boundary approaches from the north. This looks to bring low-medium
chances for showers/tstms (20-50%) back into the forecast late Sun
into Mon. This may also result in afternoon highs Mon more in the
lower/mid 90s. Overnight lows through early Mon look to fall mainly
into the mid 70s/near 70F for most spots.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Local/regional radars indicated a disorganized area of showers
50-100 nmi SE of KHSV, heading to the NW. Some of the models have
this activity nearing KHSV before sunrise, so have added a VCSH
starting at 10Z. Did not add thunder given too much uncertainty.
Overall atmosphere moisture content appears to be on a downward
trend as we go into the day. Thus clouds (including cirrus) should
gradually become more scattered later this afternoon and evening.
Light winds overnight should become ESE-SE 10-15kt in the late
morning and this afternoon, then below 10kt Tue evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...RSB