Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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592 FXUS64 KHUN 191935 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 235 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Daytime heating of available moisture has resulted in the formation of fair weather cumulus across the greater Tennessee Valley. Somewhat deeper moisture to our east, and the influence of terrain has resulted in a few light showers popping up, mainly over parts of eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina and northern Georgia. We cannot totally rule out a brief showers over some of our more eastern areas before the evening, but chances are too low to include in the forecast. Area temperatures as of 2 PM ranged in the mid/upper 80s with light/variable winds. Clouds over the Valley should fade as we go into the evening. Lows by daybreak Friday should cool into the low/mid 60s with nearly calm conditions. Generally clear skies, light winds, and longer nights are becoming more favorable for the formation of fog. MOS output has been showing this potential the past few days, however not much fog has formed. With the base criteria needed for fog being met, will keep a mention in the forecast. We are also getting into a more foggy prone time of year. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Sunday) Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Dry conditions, with a warming trend will continue as we go into the upcoming weekend. As the general atmosphere stagnates and upper level ridging builds in from the SW, daily high and low temperatures should likewise rise. High temperatures on Friday should warm to around 90 degrees, and into the lower 90s during Saturday and Sunday. Lows in the period should range in the mid/upper 60s. Heat index readings on Sat/Sun into the low/mid 90s are expected. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 215 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 A slightly more active pattern will begin next week and an low pressure system pushes east across the CONUS. The shift will be gradual as the low pressure and associated front drifts towards the area. Through the long term rain chances will slowly build each day from about 10%-30% by Wednesday in response to the approaching front. In turn this will result in slightly more cloud cover and a gradual decrease in temps from the low 90s on Monday to the mid 80s on Wednesday. Models have yet to converge on exact details of the frontal passage regarding higher rain chances, have maintained blended guidance for now with subsequent forecast packages likely having a better idea as this moves into the short term. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Surface high pressure over the region should continue producing light winds at the terminals. Generally clear skies tonight along with light winds could result in patchy fog forming in the predawn. Confidence for fog is lower at KHSV than at KMSL. Any fog that forms should dissipate shortly after sunrise Fri AM, with VFR weather expected for the rest of the TAF. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....RSB LONG TERM....RAD AVIATION...RSB