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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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876 FXUS64 KHUN 231738 AAA AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1238 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 858 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s at present. A line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms is also currently making its way southeast across Kentucky and into Tennessee and Arkansas. This activity is expected to continue southeast, bringing low chances (15-25%) of showers and a few storms to our local area this afternoon. There is low potential for a storm or two to become strong and produce gusty winds, especially for our southern middle Tennessee counties; however, confidence in occurrence is low. Showers/storms may dampen afternoon temperatures a bit for the areas they move over; however, it will be another hot day for the Tennessee Valley. Highs this afternoon are forecast to rise into the lower to mid 90s east of I-65 and into the mid to upper 90s west. "Feels like" temperatures will be higher, reaching between the mid to upper 90s east of I-65 and in the upper 90s to around 103 degrees west later this afternoon as well. Although this does not meet Heat Advisory criteria, we still recommend caution. If heading outside for outdoor activities or work, please remember heat safety! Wear loose-fitting, light-colored clothing, take frequent breaks in the shade, and stay hydrated! Also, take caution for your pets as well! Be cautious of the hot pavement, make sure they have ample water and shade, and limit their time outdoors. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 The thunderstorms and front will shift southeast through the evening hours, and should exit to our southeast by 06-08Z. High pressure at the surface will build into the central and lower Appalachians late Monday into Tuesday, with 5h and 8h ridging also shifting into the OH and TN valleys. A combination of drier air advection and deep mixing will drop dew points into the lower to middle 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons before moisture advection increases Wednesday. Hot air temperatures are still forecast through the period, with middle 90s Monday and middle to upper 90s Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A shortwave and possibly MCS in the central Plains will arrive in the TN valley Tuesday night into Wednesday, which could factor into our temperature forecast which right now says lower to middle 90s. However, PoPs will be increasing to the 30-50% range Wednesday into Wednesday night. Although sustained large scale heavy rain is not foreseen at this point, a few areas of 0.25-0.50 inch totals look obtainable. This will be followed by a weakening frontal passage Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Notice I didn`t even mention the word cold. Southerly low level flow will develop Friday into Saturday, bringing sustained higher dew points in the 70s along with the hot temperatures, thus increasing the potential for excessive heat index values and risk into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR conditions will largely prevail through Monday. A broken line of showers/storms is currently moving over Tennessee and may hold together to bring low shower/storm chances (15-30%) to the terminals later this afternoon and into this evening. No rain is then anticipated overnight through Monday morning. Some patchy fog development is possible overnight; however, confidence in occurrence at the terminals was too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Northwest winds between 5-10 knots this afternoon will persist through early this evening before becoming light and variable tonight. Light north winds are then anticipated by mid- morning on Monday. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM....17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...26