674
FXUS64 KHUN 230351
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1051 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 949 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

High pressure has shifted a bit further southeast this evening,
but still remains centered just of the Atlantic coast and extends
WSW into Alabama and eastern Texas.

This has kept much cloud cover from forming earlier this afternoon
into the evening hours. After reaching highs in the 91 to 97
degrees today with calm or very light winds and clear skies,
temperatures have already fallen in to the lower to mid 70s in
some areas. Dewpoints over northern Alabama though are in the mid
60s to around 70 degrees. This drier air this evening, may keep
fog from becoming much of a factor around midnight, despite the
good radiational cooling in place.

Some very patchy fog cannot totally be ruled out, especially
towards Cullman county and NW Alabama. Winds may pick up towards
daybreak to around 5 mph. This will work against more widespread fog
formation as well. Lows were tweaked up a tad, but kept some 68
to 70 degree lows in place in eastern and southeastern areas of
northern Alabama. However, expect most locations to only drop into
the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued 220 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The broad sub-tropical ridge will shift to the west tomorrow
while a short wave begins to carve out a trough in the Grt Lakes
region. A cold front trailing the developing sfc low will push
southward into the OH/TN Valley region during the day. Warm and
increasingly moist air ahead of the front will move eastward into
the area, and along with increased dynamic forcing, generate a few
showers and thunderstorms. As noted in hi-res guidance, the more
intense cells may form along a line of sorts with the latest
timing indicating movement across our area from the late afternoon
into the evening. Rainfall would be heavy in some cells with PWs
pushing ~2 in and modest MUCAPEs ~ 1.5-2 KJ/Kg. Otherwise, the
risk for any severe weather appears very low.

The front appears likely to push southward across the area while
becoming increasingly non-descript. Nevertheless, mild dry air
advection from modified continental air is expected to move into
the area on Monday, pushing dew points that had risen ahead of
the front, back down into the 60s for most areas.

On Tuesday, a slightly more robust trough/front will begin working
their way across the Central Plains. Ahead of the trough, a
warmer/moister airmass will be swept out of the Plains ahead of
the front and into the TN Valley. Temperatures may reach into the
upper 90s for many locations on Tuesday, perhaps even topping 100
degrees for typically warmer areas, especially urban locations.
The main caveat to the temperatures on Tuesday will be chances for
increasing cloudiness and shower/thunderstorm activity during the
afternoon, which may tend to hold the hotter temperatures at bay.
Otherwise, this appears to the most likely day in which a Heat
Advisory may be needed during the period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The heat finally breaks on Wednesday as another front pushes
through the local forecast area. This front will bring much needed
area wide showers and storms Wednesday into Thursday morning.
Once again shear is quite weak, so not anticipating any severe
storms. Given the cloud cover and precipitation, afternoon
temperatures peak in the upper 80s to low 90s both Wednesday and
Thursday. The upper level ridge begins to build back eastward and
once again hot and humid conditions return to finish off the work
week with afternoon highs returning to the low to mid 90s on
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR flight weather conditions are forecast during the next 24
hours. Isolated TS will be possible (20% or less prob) 22Z-02Z in
far northwest AL and southern middle TN, and across the rest of
north AL and southern middle TN from 02-06Z. Thus, have left out
of either KMSL or KHSV due to low confidence.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...17