499
FXUS64 KHUN 031739
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon to our south
should tend to die out quickly by sunset before being able to
reach our counties, but will monitor these trends this afternoon.
For now, it will be a dry forecast. A very warm night is ahead as
southerly flow persists. Like this morning, low clouds may
redevelop in some areas tonight as well. Overnight lows should be
in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Thursday will be similar to today, with highs back in the lower to
middle 90s (warmest in southern TN and northwest AL). Heat index
values will once again reach 105+ in northwest AL, with 95-105
further east. Diurnal convection appears more certain Thursday,
plus a very weak shortwave moving east from the Ozarks into KY/TN
during the afternoon may be just enough of a trigger to expand
coverage Thursday afternoon. Loss of heating will diminish
coverage during the evening. However, ongoing convection along a
cold front will drop southeast through the area during the day
Friday. Although severe weather appears to be a low risk, a few
stronger storms with gusty winds and heavy downpours appears
likely.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Upper level high pressure will persist over the northern Gulf coast
through much of the long term period. Meanwhile, an upper trough over
the central CONUS will very slowly begin to shift to the east and
northeast over the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes regions
early next week. This pattern leaves the Tennessee Valley in a sort
of weakness into early next week, with southwesterly flow aloft. At
the surface, a cold front looks to enter the Tennessee Valley
Saturday morning and meander over the region through early next week.
High pressure looks to build in to the north, with high pressure
over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. With these upper level and
surface patterns, expect daily chances of showers/storms from
Saturday through Tuesday, especially during the peak heating hours of
the afternoon. Generally, chances are low to medium (20-50%) each
day with the exception of Sunday where chances are low (15-30%).

We`ll be keeping an eye on trends for Monday and Tuesday because
model guidance suggests that shear will increase to between 20-30
knots. While model instability values are under 1000 J/kg at this
point, it`s sufficient for the development of thunderstorms. Overall,
what this means is that there is potential for a few stronger storms
Monday and Tuesday. Confidence in anything severe is low, but heavy
downpours, lightning, and gusty winds are all possible.

As for temperatures, the daily chances of showers and storms may
quell the heat a bit this weekend through early next week. Highs on
Saturday are forecast to only reach the upper 80s to around 90
degrees, whereas Sunday and Monday it`ll be a bit warmer (low 90s).
Then, on Tuesday, highs looks to be similar to Saturday. This will
result in heat indices generally in the 90s this coming weekend, then
mid 90s to around 101-102 degrees in spots Monday and Tuesday. While
these values as a whole are a fair bit below Heat Advisory criteria
(105-109 degree heat indices), please remember heat safety if you
have outdoor plans. Take breaks in the shade and drink plenty of
water!

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Mainly VFR conditions are expected at both KHSV and KMSL through
the TAF period. Scattered to broken clouds are expected through
about about 22z. Winds this afternoon are generally from the SSE
at around 6 kts, with gusts up to 12 kts. By 14z, winds should
turn to the SSW at around 5 kts.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...Serre