Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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127 FXUS64 KHUN 270324 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1024 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 909 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Outflow-driven storms have moved northeast and out of our County Warning Area for this evening, however, some light showers remain throughout portions of northwestern AL and southern middle TN. A low-medium chance (20-50%) of redevelopment is possible overnight. Any showers that do develop will have a low (20%) chance of producing lightning as instability has decreased with the loss of daytime heating. Otherwise, low temperatures are forecast to drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s under mostly cloudy skies. There is a very low chance of partial clearing of cloud cover overnight in some locations. If this occurs, fog formation is likely. Outside of this, low clouds will cause fog-like conditions in higher elevations and subsequent hazardous driving conditions. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The unsettled weather pattern will continue through the duration of the short term forecast. Mid level ridging will build in from the west through the short term reinforcing the presence of mid level dry air. At the surface, the return of southerly flow will advect in higher dew points from the Gulf. With a warm moist environment in place, diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon. With no appreciable shear present, no organized severe weather is expected. Rather, storms will likely mirror typical pop up summer convection with some storms having a low chance of becoming strong to severe. That being said, any storms that do form will pose a threat for damaging winds and frequent lightning each afternoon. Given the scattered coverage of storms expected, those with outdoor plans this weekend will need to closely monitor weather condition. Aside from rain and storm chances, heat will unfortunately remain a threat through the weekend as well. Both temperatures and dew points will gradually increase through the duration of the short term forecast yielding to a gradual increase in heat index values. The current forecast includes heat index values on Saturday afternoon exceeding heat advisory criteria (105F+) west of I-65. If current forecast trends continue, a heat advisory will likely be needed for at least a portion of the CWA for Saturday and potentially Sunday. Regardless of the exact temperatures or presence of a heat advisory, it is going to be hot for everyone. Make sure to practice proper sun and heat safety through the weekend especially for those partaking in outdoor activities. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The general upper level ridge pattern remains unchanged through the long term forecast period. As a result, hot and humid conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday. Expect afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid 90s both Sunday and Monday, and the upper 90s on Tuesday. The good news is that daily diurnal thunderstorms are expected. This should help limit how hot we get each afternoon. Maximum heat index values once again will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 VFR conditions will transition to IFR (with ceilings below 010agl) by ~10Z. Ceilings will slowly rise above 015agl (MVFR) by ~15-16Z. Isolated to scattered -SHRA and perhaps a TSRA remain possible through this period, but confidence is low. Conditions should improve back to VFR with ceilings at or above 040agl by 20Z with light northeast flow developing. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HC SHORT TERM....RAD LONG TERM....GH AVIATION...17