Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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477 FXUS64 KHUN 171718 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1218 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 912 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Low chances of rain (20-30%) will continue this morning thanks to some weak lift and modest mid-level moisture which has also brought us some broken decks of cloud cover this morning. These clouds should partially break up by late morning into the early afternoon, allowing temperatures to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. This should warm the boundary layer enough to generate some low to medium chances (20-50%) for diurnally driven convection during the mid/late afternoon into the early evening -- roughly during the 21-01z window. This activity should wane after the setting sun, with localized gusty winds being the main impact. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The upper ridge pattern will then begin to expand back to the west starting tonight/Tue. The subtropical ridge at the sfc will also build into the SE region for the start of the abbreviated work week. All of this should deflect any upper waves west of the area, while allowing for drier air between H5/H7 to spread into the SE region out of the SSE. This should translate into a dry forecast continuing thru Juneteenth/Wed night. Mid/high level cloud cover though will prevail thru mid week, due in part to an influx of moisture above H4 out of the W/SW. This will result in temps both Tue/Wed trending more seasonal, with highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s. Overnight lows thru Wed night will also fall mainly into the upper 60s/lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Dry conditions with very warm to hot conditions are expected to continue for the remainder of the work week, thanks to strong upper level ridging situated over the eastern Lower-48. The 500mb depiction of this ridge has it amplifying to near 600 decameters height values in the Thursday to early Friday timeframe. The upper ridge should weaken somewhat as it settles more to the south this weekend, and then replaced early next week as mean troughing builds in from the north. While the upper ridge is in place and under partly cloudy skies, highs on Thu should warm into the lower 90s. As the ridge heads southward, subsidence under it should help make for more sunny skies over the Tennessee Valley. More solar insolation should result in the heat returning, with highs temperatures in the Friday-Sunday time frame soaring into the mid 90s, with mid/upper 90s on Sat and especially Sun. Corresponding heat index values in 90s Thu/Fri should rise to around 100 degrees on Sat, and in the 99-104 degree range Sun. The models have backed off of a potential tropical born system moving over the SE coast Thu/Fri, instead are focusing the deepest tropical moisture over the Gulf and Caribbean. This moisture should be directed more to our west, keeping the area rain free for the most part in the latter half of the week. However, more moisture should return on Sun, and bring isolated showers/thunderstorm chances to the area. Rain chances may go up as we go into the next week, as a more unsettled pattern possibly returns. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 VFR conditions are expected for KHSV and KMSL through the TAF period. Scattered to broken clouds should persist with winds generally out of the southeast at about 5-10 kts. Some light showers remain possible for KMSL from 18Z through 22Z, and have added a TEMPO to account for this. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...AMP SHORT TERM....09 LONG TERM....RSB AVIATION...Serre