435
FXUS64 KHUN 030452
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1152 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 922 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms that impacted
parts of the Tennessee Valley earlier, have for the most part
dissipated with a loss of daytime heating and strong boundary
interaction. But some convection continue south of this area, near
the I-20 corridor and mainly east of I-65. Did see some weak
echoes that were over the Quad Cities area of NW Alabama - which
have faded. Otherwise under mostly clear skies, 9 PM temperatures
have cooled into the 70s with light winds.

A look at MRMS data indicated a majority of the area received
measurable rainfall today, with amounts near 2" over parts of
western Cullman county and a few spotty amounts nearing an inch
here and there. Given at the moment mostly clear skies, light
winds, a wet ground, and the start of night-time, which are
favorable preconditions for fog to develop. A few spots like
Scottsboro or Vinemont were showing reduced ceilings (low cloud
bases) and/or reduced visibilities. With a good 9 hours before
daybreak Monday, there will be an opportunity for fog to become an
issue later tonight into early Mon, especially in the area`s more
fog prone spots. Am not confident on issuing a dense fog advisory
at this time, as model output was showing fog, but not dense fog.
Mid and high clouds ejected from more widespread convection over
AR-LA-TX will overspread the area in the overnight. A high
altitude cloud canopy would have little impact on whether fog will
form or not, but a mid level deck could. The on-going forecast
otherwise is looking good with no big changes needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Early morning fog will quickly dissipate and the end result will
be a mostly sunny and rain-free June day on Monday as a subtle
ridge axis noses into the area. It will still feel quite humid,
however, and with highs in the mid to upper 80s and peak heat
indices in the lower 90s. The tranquil weather will be short-lived
as another shortwave will ripple from the Mid South into the
Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians on Tuesday, with medium
chances for showers and storms (40-60%) returning by the
afternoon hours. It`s possible a couple strong storms may develop
during the peak heating afternoon/early evening window with gusty
winds and heavy downpours being the main threats. This initial
activity will wane overnight, but cloud cover will begin to creep
back ahead of the next feature set to bring some additional
chances for convection on Wednesday. More on this in the section
below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Heading into mid week, a deepening upper level low riding along the
U.S. and Canadian border just NW of the Great Lakes will run into a
blocking pattern. The associated sfc low will have a cold front that
extends down the MS Valley. A shortwave will swing through before
the cold front does, providing medium chances (40-60%) Wednesday
morning, and coverage increases to high chances (60-70%) in the
afternoon ahead of the front. Showers and storms will linger into
Thursday, lesser in coverage though, until the front itself passes
through. Forecast soundings show pockets of instability but weak
shear with PWAT forecasts up to 1.8-1.9" (75th percentile or higher).
At this time, hazards are heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Will note
that WPC has the TN Valley in a Marginal ERO again on Wednesday, so
will watch for flooding potential.

Behind the front, cooler and drier air will filter in, decreasing
cloud cover and dewpoints. Temps will only be a tad cooler, with
highs in the low/mid 80s and lows in the lower 60s at night both
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Conditions are VFR at this time, however expecting VIS to drop to
MVFR or lower at times with fog development, especially between
09-12Z. Once fog dissipates, VFR conditions will prevail through
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....JMS
AVIATION...JMS