044
FXUS64 KHUN 301359
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
859 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 859 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Billow clouds are blanketing portions of northeastern AL and
southern middle Tennessee, preventing showers from intensifying
as we remain capped this morning. As we move into the late morning
to afternoon, we expect these to erode with diurnal heating and
storms to form.

An upper level ridge is continuing to strengthen as it moves over
the south-central CONUS. Ahead of a shortwave trough set to move
through portions of the TN Valley tonight, a cold front is
forecast to bring medium to high chances of showers (40-75%) with
a medium chance of producing lightning this afternoon into the
early evening. Similarly to yesterday, PWATs are likely around 2"
this morning as BMX`s observed 12Z sounding was 1.86" and OHX`s
12Z sounding was 2.31". Model PWATs this afternoon are between
2-2.2" across the TN Valley. This is above the 90th percentile
sounding climatology per BMX and OHX- proving any shower that
forms today to be an efficient rainfall producer. Storm motion is
also forecast to be slower (less than 15 kts), contributing to
ponding of water during times of heavy rainfall in areas of poor
drainage. Due to very weak shear, confidence in severe storms is
low today. However, gusty winds up to 40-50 mph and lightning
remain medium threats.

Our highest concern today is heat. A Heat Advisory remains in
effect through 7 PM CDT this evening throughout all of northern AL
and portions of southern middle TN for heat indices up to 109
expected. We encourage everyone to drink plenty of water (even if
you do not feel thirsty), stay out of the sun if possible, and
check on relatives/neighbors. This level of heat will especially
impact individuals sensitive to heat and those without effective
cooling systems and/or adequate hydration.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The aforementioned upper ridge will continue to strengthen and
push eastward over the Southeast through Tuesday. The surface cold
front will move southward, with high pressure building in behind
it over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and down into the Tennessee
Valley through Monday night. The high looks to then begin to shift
east on Tuesday. Some lingering showers are possible early this
evening but, beyond that, no rain is anticipated through Tuesday
night. Drier air will be filtered into the region in the wake of
the cold front, allowing for somewhat cooler temperatures and
lower dew points on Monday. After lows in the mid to upper 60s for
most areas tonight, highs are forecast to only reach the mid to
upper 80s on Monday. Lows Monday night are then expected to drop
into the lower to mid 60s for many locations, with some upper 60s
over northeast Alabama. This cooldown will be short-lived, as
temperatures will warm right back up into the upper 80s to mid 90s
on Tuesday. Lows Tuesday night will also be warm, with most
places only falling into the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

The previously mentioned upper ridge is shown to persist through
midweek, but begin to flatten by Thursday night as a shortwave
trough makes its way over the north-central CONUS and into the
Great Lakes region. This feature looks to amplify somewhat down
through Texas on Saturday and push the ridge east over the
Carolinas. The surface high will push off the eastern seaboard and
also be stretched down over the Deep South from midweek through
the first part of the weekend. Meanwhile, a low pressure system
looks to move towards the Great Lakes region on Saturday, with an
associated cold front traversing the Mississippi Valley.

For sensible weather, expect a return of shower and storm chances
by midweek. Low chances (15-25%) of showers and storms are
forecast on Wednesday then become medium (50-60%) by Friday
afternoon. Low to medium (30-50%) chances of showers/storms then
round out the week for Saturday. While guidance suggests ample
instability through the period, shear is meager through at least
Friday. However, shear looks to increase to around 20-25 knots on
Saturday, which could mean the potential for some stronger storms.
Ultimately, as this is at the tail end of the forecast time
frame, we will just keep an eye on trends for now.

We will also keep an eye on temperatures, as highs are forecast
to reach the lower to mid 90s Wednesday through Friday. With
elevated moisture returning to the region during this time, this
will result in heat indices in the triple digits (100-108 degrees
Thursday and Friday especially). Highs then looks to be a touch
cooler on Saturday, but it will still be hot. Lows from mid to
late week are also forecast to range in the lower to mid 70s each
night for much of the area. We will continue to monitor these
trends for the potential of needing to issue heat products.
Regardless, please be safe in the heat this summer. Take frequent
breaks in the shade, wear loose-fitting and light-colored
clothing, and stay hydrated!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

No big changes from the previous forecast. VFR conditions, light
winds, and no rain were reported at the terminals at issuance;
but, rain chances will increase through the morning hours, peaking
this afternoon. Heavy downpours, lightning, and some gusty winds
are all possible; however, severe weather is not anticipated.
Slight reductions in VIS and CIGs are likely in the heavier
showers/storms. Rain chances dwindle through early this evening,
with no rain by mid to late evening. Expecting winds to become
northerly this afternoon and increase to between 5-10 knots. After
decreasing to around 5 knots for a brief time this evening, winds
may increase to between 5-10 knots once again later tonight.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...26