334
FXUS64 KHUN 241658
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1158 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 802 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Todays focus will be on a mid level trough and associated cold
front slowly making its way east across the area. Current
observations indicate the front is still well to our west over
Missouri and Arkansas. Despite this, a band of prefrontal clouds
and showers is moving through NW AL and TN. Given that this
activity is far removed from the front, it is expected to wane as
it continues to push east through the morning.

Better forcing will be present this afternoon as the front draws
closer to support scattered shower and thunderstorm development
across the area. HREF models continue to support 1000-2000 J/KG of
CAPE along with 40-45 KTS of Bulk shear. This will be sufficient
for strong to severe storm potential this afternoon with the main
threats being damaging winds and frequent lightning. The highest
CAPE and SHEAR values are forecast for NW AL, giving us greater
confidence in the low severe threat materializing there. We will
have to keep an eye on ongoing showers and overcast conditions to
see if that inhibits fuel for afternoon storms. While storms will
decrease with the loss of diurnal heating, rain is expected to
continue along the front through the night, please see the short
term forecast for additional rainfall details.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The front will drift into NW AL this evening and lightly stall,
with lingering showers/tstms continuing along/ahead of the weak
sfc boundary, although the loss of buoyant energy will likely
offset the prob for any additional stronger storms. The influx of
slightly cooler air may at least allow for lows early Wed more in
the mid/upper 60s. The unsettled/wet pattern will then continue
into the middle of the week, as the upper trough pattern evolves
into a closed low over the Midwest/Mid South areas. Additional
periods of showers/tstms along/ahead of the stalled front are
expected into Wed night, although considerable cloudiness/rainfall
may limit much in the way of airmass destabilization. Rainfall
amounts Tue/Wed predom look to be around 1-3 inches. Given these
conditions, highs on Wed may struggle to surpass the upper 70s,
with lows Wed night falling into the lower/mid 60s.

The pattern will then shift to Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine out
of the western Caribbean lifting north and strengthening into a
hurricane prior to landfall along the eastern Gulf Coast/Big Bend
area of FL Thu night. Outer bands of showers/tstms associated with
the oncoming tropical system will spread northward into the region
during the day Thu, especially east of I-65. The eventual track of
this system remains uncertain, although its likely to pass east of
the area into GA and the Carolinas. Nevertheless, additional rain
totals Thu/Thu night could range from 2-4 inches, especially east
of I-65. Rainfall within these tropical bands may certainly be
heavy at times and a Flood Watch may be needed starting Thu if not
earlier. Gusty winds are also possible across NE AL Thu/Thu night,
although this threat may be limited with a more eastward track.
With abundant cloud cover/rainfall, highs on Thu may trend more in
the mid 70s, with lows that night again falling into the lower/mid
60s for most spots.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

The forecast going into the Long Term portion will of course be
dependent on the eventual track of the tropical system, but the
rainfall impacts to the area may transition more to the upper low
over the Mid South/lower MS Valley regions as opposed to the
remnant tropical system exiting to the ENE. Medium chances for
showers/tstms (30-50%) are expected on Fri, as the upper low
begins to drift eastward. However, given the slower movement of
this feature, rain chances look to taper off this weekend to
around 20-30%. In fact, any additional rainfall looks to remain as
showers, although an isolated storm cannot be ruled out Sun
afternoon. With less cloud cover/rainfall, highs this weekend look
to climb back into the lower 80s/near 80F. Those rain chances
increase slightly on Mon, as the upper low begins to lift into the
OH Valley area. Highs on Mon also look to trend more in the upper
70s/near 80F. Lows this weekend and into next week look to remain
in the lower/mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR conditions will start the TAF period. An approaching cold
front will support showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. As
showers and storms move through ceilings and visibilities will
likely drop into periods of MVFR. Heaviest rain and storm chances
look to be from 20-0Z, thus a tempo group was included for both
terminals to reflect MVFR potential. After sunset, storms will
wane with rain forecast to continue through the night. While the
current forecast keep VFR conditions in the TAF through the
remainder of the period, we will continue to monitor trends
overnight to see if prolonged MVFR conditions develop.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...RAD