128
FXUS63 KICT 160808
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
308 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated showers and storms this morning

- Heat indices up to 104 today

- Multiple chances for showers and storms Tuesday through
  Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Warm moist advection and an exiting LLJ continues to support a
few showers and storms this morning, with the best coverage
continuing mainly to the northeast. Expect activity to dwindle
within a couple hours of sunrise. Today longwave troughing will
begin to shape up across the western CONUS while ridging
becomes more amplified across the eastern CONUS resulting in
southerly to southwesterly flow overhead for the next few days.
Heat indices will approach the low 100s across portions of
central and south central KS with quiet conditions prevailing
across the area.

Lee troughing will tighten up the pressure gradient across the state
and bring gusty southerly winds to the area thru mid week. Wind
headlines may need to be considered for the tomorrow afternoon
through Tuesday period, especially across central KS.
Otherwise, expect temps in the 90s continuing area wide. By late
Tuesday to Wednesday a compact shortwave will move thru the
main longwave trough and push a cold front through the region
increasing chances of showers and storms. Intermittent shower
and storm chances will continue across the area through
Thursday, with slightly cooler temperatures in the upper 80s to
near 90 expected for the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Main aviation concern will be a few storms over the next couple
of hours.

Scattered storms remain over northeast KS in an area of
persistent 850-700 theta-e advection. There is a chance a storm
or two may affect KSLN in the next couple of hours, but the
majority of the area is expected to remain dry. Even though
there will be plenty of instability and mostly uncapped, not
expecting afternoon storm development due to lack of surface
focus or upper level support. South winds will remain gusty
today with gusts 30-35 mph common at all sites.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMB
AVIATION...RBL