Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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528 FXUS63 KICT 210544 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1244 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ..Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Few storms possible this evening with shower/storm chances ramping-up for Sat night through Sun. - Hot temperatures again for Sat across south central and southeast KS with highs in the upper 90s to around 100. - Much cooler temperatures to start the work week with highs both Mon and Tue in the 60s and 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 323 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Currently have an upper low spinning over Southern CA with some additional shortwave energy digging across the Northern Rockies. Meanwhile, upper ridging remains across the Southern Plains. At the surface, return flow is starting back up with a warm front lifting across southwest KS. Area of showers and storms has been lifting northeast from Eastern NM into southwest KS with this activity in an area of 850-700mb moisture advection ahead of the upper wave. This area of precip is expected to continue lifting northeast late this afternoon with a few additional storms possible to the east of this cluster, along the warm front. Will hold onto some small pops this evening as the mid level theta-e advection translates northeast but feel the most widespread activity tonight will be after 06z over northeast KS were the better low level jet dynamics will be maximized. Highs on Sat will once again be 15-20 degrees above normal across most of south central and southeast KS with readings topping out in the upper 90s to around 100. By Sat afternoon, upper low will be tracking northeast across the Desert Southwest and will be moving across the Four Corners region by early Sat evening. As the same time, shortwave trough will swing across south central Canada and will allow a cold front to move across the Northern Plains. Cold front is expected to stretch from southeast Nebraska into west-central KS by Sat afternoon. While there maybe some sct shower/storm activity across mainly central KS Sat morning, feel the more widespread showers and storms will hold off until Sat evening, when the better upper diffluence approaches the area. Also still going with the thinking that the better heavy rain potential will be tied to the 850mb front which will be over central KS Sat night. In addition, PW values Sat evening look to be around 200% of normal, which should lead to some efficient rain producers. Scattered showers/storms will persist into Sun as the front continues to slowly push southeast and by 00z Mon, mainly only the Flint Hills into southeast KS will still be seeing precip. The good news is that confidence remains high in below normal temps for Mon with some highs not making it out of the 60s! We will see a gradual warmup for Tue but highs will still be below normal. By mid week, medium range models start to diverge in the placement of a cutoff low, with the ECMWF keeping the low over the Southern High Plains while the GFS keep this feature over the Missouri Valley. So this leads to low confidence beyond the Tue time frame. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 It`ll be a busy 24 hours across the region with a cold front entering the region and widespread chances of showers and storms. For the morning hours, a cluster of thunderstorms across southeast Kansas is bringing moderate to heavy rainfall with 25 to 40-knot gusts in some areas. This cluster should move into Missouri between 07-09Z this morning. Additional showers and isolated storms have also developed within the across portions of central and south-central impacts. Other than the occasional lightning strike, this activity should only produce very brief moderate to heavy rainfall. Further development this morning is possible, but confidence in the forecast is low in terms of storm chances this morning after 09Z. It appears there will be a lull in activity roughly from about 09Z this morning through about the mid afternoon hours (21Z). After 21Z, widespread showers and storms are expected to develop across much of the area, but especially along and north of US54. A few strong storms may be capable of producing 30 to 40-knot wind gusts, but the main concerns will be lightning and pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall. Storm chances are anticipated to last through the end of the TAF period. Meanwhile, a cold front will be tracking across the area today starting around 18Z when a wind shift from southwesterly to northerly arrives along I-70. This front will quickly progress southward this afternoon and should be located across far southeast Kansas by 03Z tonight. Wind speeds will generally be around 10 to 15 knots both ahead and behind of the frontal boundary. However, gusts up to 25 knots cannot be ruled out, especially after frontal passage. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...JC