Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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041 FXUS63 KICT 230804 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 304 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild conditions with periodic, low rain chances look to be the story over the next week or so. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Water vapor satellite imagery this morning shows a sharp mid/upper trough progressing across the central plains with a fairly strong upper ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level baroclinic zone extends from northwest Missouri to northwest Oklahoma, and a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are developing across portions of south-central and southeast Kansas as a result early this morning. This activity is expected to gradually progress eastward throughout the day today with slow, but steady, clearing from west to east this evening into tonight. With a post-frontal air mass in place, afternoon temperatures will general only rise into the upper 60s and low 70s across the forecast area. A second, stronger upper trough located over Alberta/Northern Montana early this morning should arrive into portions of the central plains by late tonight or early tomorrow morning. This features will be the catalyst for additional low (20-30%) rain chances as well as a reinforcing shot of cool, fall-like air during the day on Tuesday. The global ensemble and deterministic models are starting to come to a consensus that this trough will become a large cutoff upper low over the Ozarks region during much of this week and into the weekend. With this placement, generally cool to mild conditions are expected to linger. Also, perturbations rounding the western side of this upper low may help to support low rain chances across the area, especially across eastern Kansas during the latter part of the week and into the weekend. However, some models have the placement of this upper low father east into the Deep South. Should this scenario play out, warmer and drier conditions would likely prevail across Kansas. Towards the latter part of the forecast period (day 6-8), global models are hinting at the potential of this large upper low interacting with a large tropical system as it moves inland across the southeastern CONUS. This interaction would likely only prolong mild and damp conditions across the area this weekend and into the beginning of next week, assuming that the upper low is positioned further west across the Ozarks region. There are still many details that need to be worked out before we approach the weekend, so stay tuned! && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 We are expecting a gradual uptick in showers/thunderstorms over southeast Kansas later tonight into Monday morning, impacting mainly the CNU TAF. Included a TEMPO group with TSRA from 09-13z to cover this threat, although shower/storm chances could linger through 15z or so. Otherwise, IFR to MVFR ceilings will persist over portions of south-central and southeast Kansas overnight, with ceilings gradually improving from northwest to southeast during the day Monday as drier air moves in. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JC AVIATION...ADK