Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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990 FXUS63 KICT 151127 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 627 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few strong to severe storms possible from late afternoon through tonight, mainly north and west of the KS-turnpike. - Heat indices will approach the low 100s tomorrow across portions of central and south central KS. - Additional storms possible again Tuesday-Thursday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A compact shortwave trough axis is starting to emerge over eastern Colorado and will move across Kansas from mid-afternoon through late evening. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms will be possible by early afternoon and thru the evening as the associated PV wave impinges on the CWA. Best chances (20%) for storms across the area will be mainly north and west of the KS turnpike. Storms that can form may be strong to marginally severe. Increasing moisture advection is expected to expand across the area through tonight with a modest LLJ overhead, thus chances (20-25%) of elevated showers and storms will continue thru the overnight. By tomorrow afternoon, longwave troughing will begin to dominate the western CONUS while ridging dominates the eastern CONUS resulting in continued southerly to southwesterly flow overhead. Heat indices will approach the low 100s tomorrow across portions of central and south central KS. Lee troughing will tighten up the pressure gradient across the state and bring gusty southerly winds to the area thru mid week, with temps in the 90s continuing area wide. By late Tuesday to Wednesday a wave through the main western trough will push a cold front through the region increasing chances of showers and storms. Late week the pattern turns more zonal with chances of intermittent shower and storms continuing through Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 617 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Main aviation concern will once again be storm chances today. Storms that tracked across north central and northeast KS are now moving into northwest MO. An upper impulse will track across northern KS into Nebraska today. This feature may allow a few storms to develop late this afternoon and early evening across central and south central KS. However, at this time, confidence is not high enough to insert into TAFs. This is mainly due to lack of a surface focus. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KMB AVIATION...RBL