Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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734 FXUS63 KICT 271745 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms this morning generally west of I-135 with more numerous storms tonight moving out of western KS. - Storm chances return for Fri afternoon into Fri night as a cold front moves through with some severe storms possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough coming onshore over the Pacific Northwest with upper ridging over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Upper Mississippi Valley with a stationary front down near the Arklatex region. Showers and storms are currently tracking out of northeast CO and are about to move into northwest KS with this activity developing in an area of 850-700 moisture transport. There also appears to be a few minor upper perturbations moving out of the Central Rockies. This activity is expected to continue tracking east and by around 12z should be knocking on the door of our forecast area and affecting at least the western portion of our forecast area this morning. With lack of decent instability not looking for anything severe this morning. Additional storms will develop this afternoon over far western KS in a area of strong instability and minimal capping. This activity will track east into the early evening hours and will likely maintain due to increasing 850mb theta-e advection as low level jet veers after 00z. Still looking like central KS to have the higher storm chances this evening/overnight but still may see at least see some iso/sct activity to the south. While a significant severe episode does not look likely, there looks to be enough instability and shear to at least get some low end severe storms. By Fri afternoon, shortwave trough will be moving into the Northern Plains with a cold front also expected to be on the move. By late afternoon Fri, cold front should stretch from eastern Nebraska into north central KS and will continue tracking south into the evening hours. With plenty of instability, storms should try and develop along the front late Fri afternoon, likely first northeast of the forecast area where capping will be less. The big question will be how far west storms will develop as the better upper dynamics remain north and east of the forecast area. For now will go with the thinking that if storms don`t make it into our forecast area late Fri afternoon, they will early Fri evening as the front continues south. Any storm that develops will have plenty of CAPE and effective shear to produce large hail and damaging downburst winds. Still looking for the front to hang up near or just south of the KS/OK border on Sat into Sat evening. We are expecting an increase in storms Sat evening over southern KS as low level jet impinges on the front. There is then good model agreement in some additional shortwave energy tracking out of the northwest CONUS Sun and across the Northern Rockies through Monday. This will bring another chance for storms Sun night across mainly central KS as some upper energy ejects out of the Central Rockies. As far as temps go, we are looking for highs around 100 for much of the area on Fri with cooler reading for Sat into Sun. However, we look to get back to above normal temps for the start of the work week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 - Timing and intensity of thunderstorm activity from 04Z to 12Z VFR conditions are expected for the eight to ten hours of the this TAF period. After 00Z this evening, thunderstorms will develop to the west of the region and move into the region by 04Z. There is a concern with the timing and intensity of this activity. At this time, only confident enough to put TEMPO groups in KRSL and KGBD for a short period of time. VSBY restriction will primarily be due to very heavy rain rather than wind whipped rain. KSLN, KHUT, KICT and KCNU may not see thunder at all so but the chances are too high to ignore. As such, used PROB30s in the TAF at this time. By 14Z tomorrow, the thunderstorm activity is expected to depart the region and VFR conditions will return for the remainder of the TAF period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...ELM