616
FXUS63 KICT 161928
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
228 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are possible (15-20%) across central KS late this
  evening into the overnight

- Southerly winds up to 45 mph Monday and Tuesday

- Hot temperatures continue into next week

- Active weather pattern with multiple rain chances Tuesday
  through Thursday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

As of 2 PM Sunday afternoon, a midlevel ridge axis was
amplifying across the eastern CONUS while a shortwave trough
digs across the northwest US. Closer to home, another morning of
WAA driven showers/storms trained across portions of McPherson,
Marion, and Chase counties. At this hour, this activity has
dissipated and dry conditions prevail area-wide. A remnant MCV
is noted on satellite imagery across northern OK and may
contribute to additional shower/storm development across
southern KS through early evening. Otherwise, another warm and
humid afternoon is expected with temperatures in the 90s and dew
points near 70. Combining these two will yield heat index
values near 100 degrees. Further west, a surface trough axis
continues to deepen across the high Plains. While large scale
ascent remains meager, strong surface heating and upslope flow
across northeast CO and adjacent portions of NE and KS should
allow thunderstorm development later this afternoon. A strong
LLJ near 50 kt could provide sufficient WAA for storm
maintenance into portions of central KS. Given this potential,
have added a slight chance for thunderstorms across central KS
late this evening and early Monday morning. Damaging winds up to
60 mph and brief heavy rainfall are possible with any storm
overnight.

Transitioning into next week, the midlevel ridge axis will continue
to amplify across the eastern CONUS early next week, leaving the
Plains on the western periphery. Continued lee troughing across the
high Plains will yield a strong pressure gradient Monday and
Tuesday. Southerly wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible, especially
across central KS. In addition, warm conditions will continue with
temperatures in the 80s and 90s much of the week. The previously
mentioned northwestern US trough will pivot into the central states
Tuesday into Wednesday, shunting a cold front into KS. This should
shunt the warmest temperatures into the MS Valley. Confidence
continues to increase for additional shower/storm chances Tuesday
through Thursday, especially across central and northern KS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Gusty south winds will prevail across the region for today and
diminish some tonight with VFR conditions expected across
central and southeast Kansas. South winds will increase on
Monday and will become even stronger than today.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...CDJ