Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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395 FXUS63 KICT 222340 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 640 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances linger tonight/Monday mainly east of the turnpike with small chances areawide again on Tuesday. - Mild days and cool nights this week! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Some much needed rainfall in the past 24 hours with much of it falling over the drought-stricken areas of south central Kansas. Clouds with residual scattered light rain and drizzle in the post-frontal airmass early this afternoon with an unseasonably cool north wind over much of the area. The exception is far southeast Kansas where some sunshine along the southward sagging frontal boundary has allowed temperatures to top 80F. This is where a diurnal uptick in showers/storms will remain possible late this afternoon/early evening for a locally strong storm. Otherwise, residual post frontal clouds and scattered light rain/drizzle chances will prevail through early tonight across the Flint Hills into parts of south central Kansas. A residual weak upper trof will linger over the central Plains/eastern Kansas on Monday with slight chances for a few showers in far southeast Kansas. Meanwhile a stronger northern stream upper trof will settle southward across the northern Plains into the Midwest Monday night thru Tuesday. The relatively cool air aloft under the upper trof combined with diurnal heating may promote scattered convection across central and eastern Kansas on Tuesday afternoon. This is somewhat conditional with respect to rather limited surface/low level moisture. Nonetheless, a few showers/storms could be capable of some small hail and gusty winds. The medium range consensus continues to support developing this into a cutoff low meandering southward in vicinity of the Ozark region later in the week as a Rex-type blocking pattern (ridge aloft) builds over the Upper Midwest/northern Great Lakes. Overall, temperatures look to average a bit below seasonal climo thru the week. Darmofal && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Main aviation concern will be low clouds tonight into Mon morning across southern KS. Cold front moved through today and now stretches from Southern MO into Central TX. Low clouds continue to linger behind the front and remain in place at both KICT and KCNU. We should see MVFR cigs at KICT for at least the next few hours before lifting to VFR levels. Meanwhile at KCNU, IFR levels will remain through most of the night before lifting to MVFR levels Mon morning. VFR conditions are anticipated at the remaining sites. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KED AVIATION...RBL