Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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330 FXUS63 KICT 160729 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 229 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - AM shower/storm chances in central KS to start off the week. - Better chances for showers and storms late Tuesday into Wednesday. - Warm this week, then a cooldown in sight? && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Water vapor imagery this morning indicates a strong mid/upper trough situated over the Great Basin as a ridge sits over the Great Lakes. A decaying MCS continues to make its way through portions of northwest Kansas, thereby reducing confidence in potential for additional elevated convection later this morning. Still maintained low PoPs in central KS given short-term model support for continued 700 mb WAA later this morning. Any activity that manages to develop is not expected to be severe. PRECIPITATION... The active morning pattern will look to continue through the beginning of the week as modest low/mid-level WAA provides chances for elevated showers and storms similar to what we saw this weekend. Current short-term guidance suggests better chances west of the forecast area, though it will be hard to rule out isolated showers making it to central KS considering recent trends. Better support for convection arrives late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as an upper wave rolls through the Northern Plains. This should allow for a more organized complex of showers and storms to move from west to east across Kansas, making it possibly as far east as the Flint Hills on Wednesday. Additional chances for showers and storms arrive later on through the weekend as a cold front makes its way through the state. TEMPERATURES... Seasonably warm high temperatures (middle to upper 80s) are expected to dominate the scene through the middle of the work week before above-average highs (low to middle 90s) arrive on Thursday and Friday. We`ll look to cool down as we head into next weekend with the arrival of the aforementioned cold front, which at this point is progged to bring highs in the upper 70s and low 80s to the Sunflower State. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Western Kansas storms may struggle to make it into central KS but kept a VCTS mention at KRSL during the predawn hours. Some transient MVFR cigs may be possible under a shower or storm but confidence in this remains quite low. Other isolated storms may try to develop around sunrise but coverage is expected to remain sparse. VFR will prevail today with breezy southeast winds impacting central KS with some gusts up to 26 knots. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JWK AVIATION...MWM