Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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345 FXUS63 KICT 212343 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 643 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Numerous/widespread showers with embedded storms tonight. - Much cooler for Sunday with lingering showers/storms. - Mild days/cool nights for much of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 A strong signal for a welcome rainfall event ramping up early this evening generally west of I-135 before spreading eastward overnight thru Sunday across the rest of central and eastern Kansas. An area of convection was moving out across the northern Texas/Oklahoma panhandles at early afternoon well ahead of the approaching upper trof just southwest of the Four Corners region. While clouds have inhibited warming somewhat earlier in the day, late afternoon sun/heating should result in mlcape values around 1500 j/kg over parts of the area in the presence of moderate deep layer shear. This should support a few strong to marginally severe storms early this evening. Otherwise, stronger forcing for ascent will move across the area overnight in advance of the upper shortwave trof. Fairly high precipitable water values (around 2") will lend to efficient rainfall from any storms, especially along/west of the Kansas turnpike corridor through early Sunday morning. The good news is that some of this looks to fall over the drought-stricken areas of south central Kansas just west and northwest of Wichita. The main theme on Sunday will be much cooler weather with lingering showers and perhaps a few storms on gusty northerly winds. A residual weak upper trof will linger over the central Plains into Monday before being kicked eastward as a northern stream upper trof settles southward across the northern Plains into the Midwest on Tuesday. The medium range consensus seems to support developing this into a cutoff low meandering somewhere over Kansas or the central conus later in the week as a blocking pattern (ridge aloft) building over the Upper Midwest/northern Great Lakes. Overall, while moderating some, this looks to keep temperatures a bit below seasonal climo thru the week. Darmofal && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Main aviation concerns will be storms tonight with lowering cigs toward morning. Upper low continues to spin over the Four Corners region with upper diffluence starting to spread over the Plains. Large area of persistent 850-700mb moisture transport remains in place from Western OK into Northeast KS. This will keep showers and storms going for much of the area for the next several hours, with KICT-HUT-KSLN having the best chance to see widespread showers and storms through 06z. Looking for cigs to lower toward sunrise as cooler air starts to work-in from the north with high confidence in at least MVFR ceilings at KHUT-KICT-KSLN after 09z and remaining through most of the day. Not out of the question there maybe some pockets of IFR cigs mixed-in. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 A record cool high temperature is possible at Russell on Sunday. The record is 57 degrees last set in 1962, with the forecast calling for mid-upper 50s. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KED AVIATION...RBL CLIMATE...ADK