Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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009 FXUS62 KILM 182008 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 408 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Weakening low pressure will bring unsettled weather through Thursday. Slightly cooler and drier weather will accompany persistent north-northeasterly winds over the weekend while high pressure maintains control. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper level reflection of former PTC8 now more open and less impressive. No surprise then that convection has been hard-pressed to produce lightning. Guidance is in good agreement in keeping this so as well as confining coverage to western half of the CWA. Expect a diurnally-driven downward trend in coverage overnight, perhaps to zero for a time. Patchy fog is possible overnight especially in areas that see rain. Slightly better coverage of storms tomorrow but very poor lapse rates will keep lightning to a minimum and rainfall amounts light while we see temperatures similar to those of this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Best rain chances will be near the coast at the start of the period as low pressure departs to our northeast. High pressure will build in from the west where the forecast now remains mostly dry. Some isolated showers and storms could form along the sea breeze Friday afternoon but they should remain shallow and chances of rainfall accumulation >0.05" will be low. Highs in the low to mid 80s with lows in the low to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Guidance now keeps the offshore low far to our northeast, which diminishes chances of enhanced forcing clipping our area. The period is now looking mostly dry with some temperature complications due to ridging high pressure. Depending on how quickly the high pressure moves in, temperatures could drop into the 70s by Sunday staying seasonable into early next week. The coolest day is looking to be Monday currently. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Thunderstorm coverage will be low this afternoon and generally be confined to inland terminals LBT and FLO. Flight restrictions will be short-lived and likely not severe at all. These same locales will see a repeat of last nights lowered flight categories from fog and/or stratus. Thunderstorm coverage a tad higher tomorrow at this time. Extended Outlook...Afternoon MVFR possible Thursday with morning MVFR/IFR possible Thursday and Friday mornings. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...Light SW to at times variable winds early in the period with wave energy that continues to abate. A weak boundary turns flow to the north on Thursday as mainly swell waves of 9 seconds remain in the 2-3 ft range. Thursday Night through Monday...N to NE flow will remain dominant through the period due to departing low pressure. Wind speeds will be generally around or above 10 kts with strongest wind speeds (15- 20 kts) expected Sunday into Monday due to ridging high pressure from the north. Waveheights generally 2-4 ft with building 5 footers towards the end of the period due to increasing N-NE swells. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High astronomical tides and a bit of lingering swell from the prolonged onshore winds will lead to coastal flooding with the morning and evening high tides across the forecast area through at least next Monday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...MBB MARINE...MBB/LEW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...