241
FXUS62 KILM 120238
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1038 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier high pressure will bring mainly rain-free and
increasingly warmer weather through mid week. Even warmer
temperatures are then likely late week ahead of a cold front
which should bring a bit cooler and drier weather again early
next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
No significant changes made to previous forecast with this
update. Trimmed back patchy fog a bit for tonight, but still
chance for brief shallow fog mainly east of I-95 through
morning. 0z aviation discussion below.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Tomorrow is looking much like today as high pressure remains
near the surface. Winds are largely expected to go calm tonight
with a turn to the SE behind this afternoon`s sea breeze. The
light winds and clear skies should lead to good radiational
cooling so went a bit cooler than guidance for the lows tonight,
temps in the low to mid 60s. Traditionally colder spots may
drop near 60 or into the upper 50s. Patchy fog formation is
possible tonight with high sfc RH and calm winds. Wednesday will
then start off with light E winds before another sea breeze
moves through in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s to near
90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level trough lifting out of the Northeast will weaken our
mid level flow during the short term. At the surface sprawling
but weak high pressure will be centered to our north and east.
Late in the period an area of low pressure will move parallel
to the coast but remain well offshore. No rain is expected,
nighttime lows will be seasonable, and Thursday afternoon will
warm to near 90 away from the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Heat builds on Friday as a low level thermal ridge pokes up
ahead of an approaching cold front. This front moves through on
Saturday but with a dry NW flow aloft it shouldn`t offer up
appreciable rain chances. It will also make only a minor dent
in the heat since the post-frontal high center never gets south
of NJ as it progresses eastward. Late in the period mid level
heights build once again but a deep layer of onshore flow
prevents it from turning hot again.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Predominantly VFR through Wednesday evening. Light winds and
clear skies through morning. However, it looks like moisture at
the surface isn`t as plentiful as one would like to see for fog
potential, and is quite dry not far from the ground. There is a
chance for patchy, shallow MVFR vsbys east of I-95 during pre-
dawn hours, however have removed lower vsbys from TAF sites.
Wednesday, will see increasing high clouds and scattered diurnal
cu around 8kft in the afternoon. High pressure will keep winds
light, with a southeasterly sea breeze push around 16/17z.

Extended Outlook...Generally VFR each day, with fog possible
most nights through the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...Benign marine conditions under high
pressure. Light SE winds tonight become E by Wed morning, speeds
increasing in the afternoon to 10-15 kts. 2 ft seas tonight
become 3-4 ft Wed with an increasing S/SE swell at 2-4 ft and
7-9 seconds.

Wednesday night through Sunday...Light onshore winds to start
the period both from high pressure to the NE and a weak low
paralleling the coast while staying well offshore. Veering is
then slated for Friday as a cold front approaches from the NW,
this boundary slated to push through on Saturday. This will turn
winds back to easterly, the long fetch gradually introducing a
minor swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...MBB/LEW