279
FXUS62 KILM 240452
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1252 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid weather will continue along with scattered
thunderstorms as a weak front stalls across the Carolinas this
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Isolated activity ongoing has finally started showing some lightning
and thunder. Showers and storms are slow-moving and should stay non-
severe, migrating more towards the coast this evening. Isolated
activity could remain at the coast overnight as well as some low
clouds. Warmed lows near the coast, but unsure how thick the cloud
deck will be and how long it will linger overnight. Mid 70s inland
with upper 70s near the coast. Tomorrow could see the threat for
severe weather as a cold front approaches the area. The front should
be pushing into the area around the morning along with a line of
showers and storms which will make the high temp forecast difficult
with increasing cloudiness. Went a bit warmer with the SW flow ahead
of the line, highs in the mid 90s. Heat indices could near advisory
thresholds in some areas but with the incoming precip around the
same time opted to not put one out at this time. Instability is near
2-2.5k but still not looking like much deep layer shear for storm
organization. Seeing a bit of an inverted V in the soundings and
with mixing to around 800mb isolated damaging winds and some hail
can`t be ruled out in stronger storms. The line should shift towards
the coast by the end of the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Pops will linger into Monday evening via a cold front
and mid level trough. The boundary will get bogged down or dissipate
through Wednesday with pops being more confined to southern zones
Tuesday. By Wednesday a more seasonal sea breeze boundary will be
the main catalyst for showers and thunderstorms. While there is
almost no cooling in the wake of the front some slightly lower
dewpoints will decrease heat concerns Tuesday with moisture recovery
Wednesday bringing the possibility of headlines back into play.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Decent pops remain in the forecast for Thursday and
Friday although the coverage and or intensity have taken a hit in
recent medium range model cycles. Although the mid level trough and
front are decent enough it appears the trough is advecting
relatively dry and stable air from the massive ridge out west that
extends into the Gulf of Mexico. Next weekend seems to offer more of
a sea breeze/isolated pulse convection set up. Temperatures will be
on the warm side of climatology but probably just short of any
headline criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and onshore flow will keep MVFR potential near the coast
overnight, although this appears to remain periodic. IFR is
possible along the Grand Strand prior to sunrise. Hot
temperatures developing during the day should help develop a
broken eastward-moving line of thunderstorms Monday afternoon,
potentially affecting KFLO and KLBT as early as 17-18z, then
moving down to the coast a couple hours later. High-res model
blends show the highest risk for convective impacts occurring at
the KILM airport between 19z-22z where low visibility in heavy
rain has a moderate potential to occur.

Extended Outlook... VFR should prevail outside of periodic
MVFR/IFR during diurnal showers/thunderstorms plus spotty morning
low clouds/fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...
Small Craft conditions should be met in both gusts
and seas tonight with questionable ending time as the 6ft seas look
to take a bit longer to leave our outer waters. Current advisory is
running through Monday morning. Isolated strong storms may move over
the waters Mon PM ahead of a cold front but winds should stay SW
through the period.

Monday Night through Friday...
Residual southwest winds of 10-15 knots late Monday are
seemingly the strongest of the week as a cold front pushes across
briefly. A brief and weak offshore flow will then develop followed
by south to southeast winds ten knots or so through late week.
Significant seas will be 2-4 feet.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents possible for
the Brunswick County and Northern Horry County Beaches
for Mon with a gradually decreasing risk of rip currents
Tue and Wed for all county beaches.

For today, a strong south to north longshore current expected
across Pender and New Hanover County Beaches. This may need to
be expanded to other county beaches for Mon as modest SSW to SW
winds continue, possibly increasing ahead of an approaching
cold front.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     NCZ107.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...21
MARINE...SHK/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...