Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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448 FXUS62 KILM 201721 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 121 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonably warm and mainly dry conditions will continue into tonight. Onshore movement of showers and possibly a thunderstorm late tonight into Friday as a result of low pressure tracking across the SW Atlantic, that eventually moves onshore well south of the area. Warming trend begins Saturday, with an extended period of heat, humidity, and diurnal convection forecasted through middle of next week. && .UPDATE... No major changes needed to the previous forecast. Radar shows some light showers building back up offshore but model guidance suggests they won`t make it to shore except possibly Georgetown Co later this afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today will be a persistence day with highs generally a repeat of Wed as high pressure aloft keeps enough subsidence across the FA keeping a lid on any widespread convection. Still may observe isolated showers move onshore, now thru late this morning before dissipating the further they move inland. However, will observe additional stratocu/cu clouds moving onshore, especially later tonight or during the overnight period. This a result of the tropical wave/Low pressure tracking W to WNW across the Southeast U.S. Atlantic waters, that will reach the offshore and possibly the coastal waters off FL/GA by Fri daytime morning. Pops will be included for the late overnight period as the pcpn activity pinwheels counterclockwise ahead of the low, reaching the ILM SC Coast and partially inland late in the pre-dawn Fri hrs. Highs today low to mid 80s at the coast to the upper 80s to lower 90s inland, following close to the NBM numbers given its decent max temp performance of late. Tonights lows, widespread 60s to around 70 at the immediate coast given onshore flow across SSTs in the 70s to around 80. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Low level trough will be inland near coastal GA early Friday. Moisture extending north from the trough will move into our coastal areas during the day. Subsidence from mid-upper ridge centered to the west and north will limit inland (and northern) extent of any convection Friday midday and afternoon. Have increased pops slightly, with 30-40% chance across coastal NE SC and generally below 20% north of US-76. Friday might be our last day with near normal temperatures for a while as a prolonged warming trend begins Saturday with WAA around Bermuda high. Subsidence weakens a bit Saturday, with best chance for afternoon convection across southwestern counties of the CWA. High temps climb into the mid 90s away from the coast Saturday with low temps in the low 70s Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Extended period of heat, humidity, and diurnal convection forecasted beginning Sunday. Piedmont trough present Sunday and Monday with a weakening front approaching Tuesday. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s inland forecasted for each day (Sunday - Wednesday), with near 90F along the coast, will combine with elevated dewpoints to bring potential heat advisory conditions particularly Sunday and Monday. Low temps each night in the low to mid 70s. Highest pops are currently during the day Monday (~50%) as an upper trough may help initiate convection (along with aforementioned Piedmont trough and sea breeze), though strength and timing of trough is uncertain. Some dry air aloft will lessen storm coverage Tuesday and Wednesday to perhaps widely scattered. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High confidence in generally VFR conditions through 18Z Friday. MVFR/possible IFR ceilings and vsbys from low clouds/fog are possible late tonight, then MVFR ceilings/vsbys are possible from ceilings/showers after about 12Z (mainly near the coast at KILM/KCRE/KMYR). Otherwise, gusts will be near 20 kt, mainly during the daytime near the coastal terminals. Extended Outlook...VFR to prevail outside of the periodic MVFR/IFR from diurnally-induced showers/storms and late night low clouds/fog. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...SCA raised for all waters for seas periodically eclipsing 6 ft thru tonight. Overall seas 4 to 6 ft thru the period and dominated by E to ESE wave at 7 to 8 second periods. Sfc pg to slightly further tighten from south to north, between high pressure to the north and the sfc low heading toward the GA/FL Coasts. Looking at ENE-E winds around 15G20kt ILM NC waters and 15-20kt with possible G25kt ILM SC Waters. Friday through Monday...A surface trough moving inland across GA on Friday will maintain easterly flow during the day, with seas 4-5 ft slowly weakening during the day as prolonged ESE swell begins to lessen. A prolonged period of south-southwest winds over the coastal waters begins on Saturday and continues into next week around Bermuda high pressure, with brief increase in speeds to 15-20 kts on Monday. Seas 2-3 ft during the weekend increase to 3-4 ft Monday, as building S wind wave joins the weakening ESE swell. Moisture extending from the trough to the south Friday will bring scattered thunderstorms to the waters during the day. Overnight becomes the primary window for convection of the waters Friday night into next week, with a chance for daytime storms Monday with westerly storm motions and upper level support. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: A building ESE swell and upcoming full moon will maintain an elevated rip current risk for east and southeast facing beaches in our area through (at least) Friday. A high risk of rip currents is in effect today for Pender, New Hanover, Horry, and Georgetown County beaches, as well as Ocean Isle Beach west in Brunswick, with high rip risk potentially continuing through Friday. The south facing beaches of Brunswick county (east of Ocean Isle) will likely have strong east to west longshore currents today, with a moderate risk of rip currents due to strength of the swell - although longshore current is expected to make rip current formation difficult. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...VAO UPDATE...RJB NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...RJB MARINE...DCH/VAO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...