193
FXUS62 KILM 241936
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
336 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving into the area will bring thunderstorms to
the area this evening. This front will dissipate over the area
on Wednesday. Conditions will be hot and humid through the
weekend. A second front will move across the region on Thursday
bring a good chance of Thunderstorms. A third front will move
into the area by Sunday and this will bring slightly cooler
temperatures to the region on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cold front looks to have hung up to our west with this
convection mostly due to a shortwave aloft, some drier air
pushing in, and just a generally unstable atmosphere due to
temps/dewpoints. The dry air is sequestering most of the
activity which is expected to shift towards the coast by
midnight as the actual front moves through. Lows will be tricky
again tonight but hopefully not as warm as yesterday as it looks
like the boundary sticks to the coast overnight. Clouds may be
possible along the coast but unsure about fog inland due to the
modest rainfall totals we`re seeing currently. Tomorrow the
front will lift back to the north. Have cooler conditions near
the coast with warmer temps inland. Isolated convection is
possible during the afternoon primarily near the coast and in NE
SC. No severe weather is expected at this time.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
An old front will shift northward over the forecast area on Tuesday
evening and dissipate by Wednesday morning.  In the upper levels, a
weak high will develop on Wednesday before a mid-level trough shifts
into the Carolinas.  Hot and humid conditions will continue with a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.  High temperatures will
reach the upper 90 inland and lower 90s on the coast. Lows will
range between 72 and 75 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The next best chance of precipitation is Thursday as a surface front
moves into our region and dissipates on Friday.  A second surface
front moves to the coast Sunday night, and another good chance for
thunderstorms will help with the current rain deficit. Hot and muggy
conditions will continue with a slight cool down on Monday. Highs in
the mid-90s inland are expected Thursday through Sunday and lower
90s by Monday.  Heat advisory conditions are possible each afternoon
between Thursday and Sunday, but we`re keeping a close eye on
it.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers with some embedded thunder ongoing near inland
terminals. Tried to add as much timing as possible for impacts
in storms but some amendments may be needed later in the day,
particularly past 00Z, as coverage is uncertain. Main threats in
stronger storms will be lowered VSBYs in heavy rain and possibly
damaging wind gusts. Showers and storms should be towards the
coast by midnight, moving offshore around 2am. Overnight hazards
inland will depend on how much rain the terminals think as winds
will be light so fog may be possible. Near the coast some low
stratus may be more likely. Tried to trend towards these
threats in the TAFs.

Extended Outlook... VFR should prevail outside of periodic
MVFR/IFR during diurnal showers/thunderstorms plus spotty morning
low clouds/fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday, Small Craft Conditions linger in our NC waters
primarily due to seas. Isolated strong storms are possible over
the waters this evening ahead of a front. Conditions should
start to improve as the front reaches the coast late tonight
before lifting back north through Tuesday. Winds will turn to
the ESE near 10-15 kts with seas 2-3 ft.

Tuesday Night through Saturday, Winds from the southeast to
southwest through most of the forecast period, with winds
generally around 10 knots. Seas will range between 2 and 3 feet.
No advisories are expected.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...ILM