009
FXUS62 KILM 182008
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
408 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weakening low pressure will bring unsettled weather through
Thursday. Slightly cooler and drier weather will accompany
persistent north-northeasterly winds over the weekend while high
pressure maintains control.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper level reflection of former PTC8 now more open and less
impressive. No surprise then that convection has been hard-pressed
to produce lightning. Guidance is in good agreement in keeping this
so as well as confining coverage to western half of the CWA. Expect
a diurnally-driven downward trend in coverage overnight, perhaps to
zero for a time. Patchy fog is possible overnight especially in
areas that see rain. Slightly better coverage of storms tomorrow but
very poor lapse rates will keep lightning to a minimum and rainfall
amounts light while we see temperatures similar to those of this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Best rain chances will be near the coast at the start of the period
as low pressure departs to our northeast. High pressure will build
in from the west where the forecast now remains mostly dry. Some
isolated showers and storms could form along the sea breeze Friday
afternoon but they should remain shallow and chances of rainfall
accumulation >0.05" will be low. Highs in the low to mid 80s with
lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Guidance now keeps the offshore low far to our northeast, which
diminishes chances of enhanced forcing clipping our area. The
period is now looking mostly dry with some temperature
complications due to ridging high pressure. Depending on how
quickly the high pressure moves in, temperatures could drop into
the 70s by Sunday staying seasonable into early next week. The
coolest day is looking to be Monday currently.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thunderstorm coverage will be low this afternoon and generally
be confined to inland terminals LBT and FLO. Flight restrictions
will be short-lived and likely not severe at all. These same
locales will see a repeat of last nights lowered flight
categories from fog and/or stratus. Thunderstorm coverage a tad
higher tomorrow at this time.

Extended Outlook...Afternoon MVFR possible Thursday with
morning MVFR/IFR possible Thursday and Friday mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...Light SW to at times variable winds early in the
period with wave energy that continues to abate. A weak boundary
turns flow to the north on Thursday as mainly swell waves of 9
seconds remain in the 2-3 ft range.

Thursday Night through Monday...N to NE flow will remain dominant
through the period due to departing low pressure. Wind speeds will
be generally around or above 10 kts with strongest wind speeds (15-
20 kts) expected Sunday into Monday due to ridging high pressure
from the north. Waveheights generally 2-4 ft with building 5 footers
towards the end of the period due to increasing N-NE swells.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High astronomical tides and a bit of lingering swell from the
prolonged onshore winds will lead to coastal flooding with the
morning and evening high tides across the forecast area through
at least next Monday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Thursday for NCZ107.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...