821
FXUS61 KILN 140230
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1030 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach tonight, crossing the region
Friday. North to northeast flow through Saturday will hold
temperatures in the 80s. Sunday will have southerly flow return
with highs near 90, then a notable increase in temperatures into
the mid and upper 90s is expected for next week under a building
high pressure system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Thunderstorms will push into east central IN this late evening with
showers found east of the IN/OH state line. The thunderstorms
are expected to slow their east-southeast progression and advect
more to the south, following the upper level energy giving them
the added upward motion needed for stronger cells. Elsewhere in
the CWA, scattered showers will push southeast and reach the
I-71 corridor towards midnight. They will continue to decrease
in coverage, and new development ahead of the main body in
central IN is not expected. As the upper s/w energy moves south
through IN, a fair amount of vorticity should pass over ILN CWA
overnight, keeping a scattered shower/thunderstorm potential
through daybreak generally along and northwest of the I-71
corridor.

A good amount of cloud cover tonight will keep lows in the mid
60s, some upper 60s possible in the northwest and lower 60s in
the Hocking Hills region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Going into the late morning hours and into the afternoon on
Friday there will be some additional redevelopment with the
frontal boundary especially across eastern portions of the
region. There is some instability and therefore the potential
for some of this activity to be in the form of thunderstorms.
The cold front will move through ushering in slightly cooler air
with low temperatures Friday night dropping into the middle 50s
to around 60. Dry conditions are expected for Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A prolonged period of heat and humidity will be the major story in
the extended forecast, beginning on Sunday and continuing into much
of next week.

For the period Saturday into Saturday night, surface high pressure
will extend across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley.
Temperatures will be near climatological norms along with lower
humidity due to a northeast surface flow veering to a more easterly
direction during the period. Highs will range from the lower to
perhaps mid 80s with lows in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

As previously stated, increasing heat and humidity will be the major
story Sunday through Thursday. Will be relying on the ECMWF/EPS
solution which builds a strong anomalous mid level ridge across the
Ohio Valley which will then extend east into the mid Atlantic and
parts of New England. Temperatures will warm some on Sunday, highs
in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Surface moisture will begin to
creep up as the surface flow becomes southerly in direction. We may
see a few spots touch mid 90 heat indices, especially along and
south of the Ohio River. For the period Monday through Thursday,
temperatures will increase to well above normal readings for mid
June (normals highs in the lower 80s, lows in the lower 60s) with
highs generally in the mid and upper 90s (a 100 degree reading is
withing the realm of possibility). Will have to watch the
possibility of reaching record highs. Surface moisture will
fluctuate slightly through the period, depending on direction
(south/southwest slightly higher, southeast, slightly lower), but
overall peak heat indices will range between 100 and 105. Nighttime
lows in the lower to mid 70s will offer little relief. Chances of
rain through this period is expected to remain low, with a 10 to 15
percent chance of a pop up shower/storm in the afternoon and evening
possible due to the diurnal instability.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered to broken mid deck quickly developed ahead of the more
solid mid deck noted nw of DAY this evening. An isolated strong
shower ahead of the more prevalent but weakening showers/-ra
running from northern IN into wrn LERI looks to be a singularity
and not a precursor to more development this evening. It just
put out some lightning but should weaken significantly in the
next hour or two, and not affect any terminals.

Rain shield and some isolated showers will dissipate as they
propagate southeast into CWA, possibly maintaining a presence to
where DAY may see a brief VFR -ra/-sh before daybreak. While
it`s not expected, this brief VFR -ra could affect remaining
terminals near daybreak.

Lower yet still VFR cloud deck will develop in the afternoon as
the cold front crosses. KCMH will stand the best chance for
light showers during the day with cold air overturning as well
as an MVFR bkn deck accompanying the fropa.

Southwest winds ahead of the front will turn northwest and then
north in the afternoon. Until the winds become more northerly,
they should remain under 8kt, and then be more 8-12kt through
the remaining daylight hours.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...Franks