Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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703 FXUS61 KILN 260517 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 117 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms are expected again Wednesday into Wednesday night as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. High pressure and a drier airmass will return for Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Showers and thunderstorms have exited southern portions of the region leaving the area dry for the time being. Not expecting a lot of development overnight, however what development there will be is expected to be focused on the south and southwest portions of the area. Temperatures are not expected to drop much further overnight with lows generally in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... The mid level short wave will move east across our area through the day on Wednesday, helping to push an associated cold front southeast across the Ohio Valley. Developing low and mid level flow ahead of this will lead to increasing moisture advection, with fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms developing and shifting southeast across the region through the day on Wednesday. The strengthening wind fields ahead of this system will lead to increasing deeper layer shear through the day with the potential for some strong to severe storms ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and evening. However, depending on how widespread and the effects of any morning pcpn, instability may pose a limiting factor to a more widespread severe threat. As of now, it appears the best chance for any severe storms would be across southeast portions of our area where we should have the best chance at some better instabilities. Highs on Wednesday will range from the upper 70s in the northwest to the upper 80s to around 90 degrees across our far southeast. Showers and storms will taper off from the northwest Wednesday evening as the cold front moves through. Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure will shift east through the Great Lakes Thursday and Thursday night. This will provide cooler and drier weather. As the high shifts off to the east on Friday, return flow will bring low level moisture back into the Ohio Valley from the south. A weak mid-level disturbance along with a surface warm front could bring scattered storms into the region late Friday into Friday night. However, the best chance for precipitation will arrive along and ahead of the next cold front on Saturday. With PWATs near two inches, will need to watch for a heavy rain threat. In addition, heat indices could approach 100 degrees depending on cloud (and precipitation) coverage and timing during the day. More surface high pressure will follow this frontal system Sunday into early next week, with temperatures falling back to near normal values. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A few rogue SHRA/TSRA will continue to percolate about the Tri- State area through daybreak, potentially very briefly impacting KCVG/KLUK. Elsewhere, expect mainly dry conditions to persist through sunrise before widespread SHRA/TSRA moves in past mid- morning. Expect an initial cluster of SHRA/TSRA to develop/move into the Tri-State after 12z, generally tracking to the ENE through the morning into early afternoon, potentially impacting each of the local sites to some degree, especially between about 14z-18z. This may be followed by a several hour break mid afternoon, especially for KCVG/KLUK/KILN where it will clear out faster behind this initial activity. However, additional widespread SHRA/TSRA will pivot back in from the N between about 22z-01z, likely impacting each terminal for at least an hour or two with some reduced VSBYs and TSRA. Did not yet have confidence to add significantly reduced VSBYs into the fcst for the evening, but certainly some MVFR/IFR VSBYs are to be expected in the heaviest activity. Could also see some brief MVFR CIGs as well. A drying trend should evolve from NW to SE after about 01z, particularly for the local TAF sites. Light SW winds early in the period will increase to about 12-15kts, with gusts to around 20kts, during the afternoon before abruptly shifting to out of the N with the passage of the front during that 22z-01z time frame. Light northerly winds at 5-7kts are expected for the final part of the TAF period, with skies trending toward SKC around/after 06z. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM... AVIATION...KC