Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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092 FXUS61 KILN 301300 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 900 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure of Canadian origin will bring dry and cool conditions today through Friday. An unsettled pattern is expected from late Saturday through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A band of mid level clouds across West Central and Central Ohio will give way to mostly sunny sky conditions later this morning as a vorticity max shifts southeast. Northwesterly flow will develop with surface high pressure of Canadian origin building into the Great Lakes today. Cool temperatures will continue with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s under mostly sunny skies. These readings are 5 to 7 degrees below normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure to settle into the area tonight. Any diurnally driven cumulus clouds will give way to clear conditions this evening. A favorable radiational cooling setup will be place with clear skies and light winds. Temperatures to bottom out in the mid to upper 40s. Mid level ridge to build into the area Friday offering dry conditions. Sunny skies will be observed with temperatures closer to seasonable normal. Highs on Friday will generally top out in the middle 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Departing high pressure Friday night will have a weak surface low track northeast, reaching northern Ohio overnight on Saturday. Combined with s/w energy in an upper trough, showers and thunderstorms will overspread the CWA from the west on Saturday. Models diverge Saturday night in how long the surface front takes to cross, with a subsequent uncertainty ending any post-frontal rainfall on Sunday. While mainly dry Sunday night, was not able to discount the later ending time of the precip and continued low chance pops. Monday will start out dry but again models show significant discrepancies in a pattern that supports rain/thunderstorm chances with various passing disturbances. Late on Wednesday and in the evening had the best consensus on the next frontal passage and increased probability of showers and thunderstorms. After a cool start Friday night with lows 50-55, temperatures will rise to near normal for the weekend and then rise to be around 5 degrees above normal from 80-85. Overnight lows will be close to 10 degrees above normal on both Monday and Tuesday nights, slightly less so on Wednesday night. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Lingering clouds around 7000 feet will offer a VFR ceiling early across KCMH and KLCK. These mid level clouds will continue to gradually erode this morning. Otherwise, river valley fog will impact KLUK IFR vsby restrictions improving thru MVFR and then VFR quickly this morning. Few to scattered cu development will be possible this afternoon with VFR conditions heading into this evening. River valley fog is again possible tonight and have a mention of MVFR vsby restrictions at KLUK to account for this chance. Winds remain below 10 kts through the period, veering from the NW to NE today and then from the east overnight. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday through Monday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...Campbell/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...AR