049
FXUS61 KILN 191336
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
936 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in place across the region through
the weekend. This will lead to mainly dry and continued warm
conditions. A frontal boundary will move into the area early
next week, bringing somewhat cooler temperatures and a chance
for showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No significant changes needed with the morning update. Weak
surface high pressure and mid- level ridging will bring another
day of warm and dry weather. Winds will be light out of the
north. Efficient mixing and dry soils will cause dewpoints to
fall off into the 50s this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The mid level ridge axis will begin to flatten out tonight into
Friday as some weak mid level energy rides over the top of it.
This will likely lead to some increase in clouds across our
northwest through the afternoon but it looks like any pcpn
associated with the short wave should remain off to our
northwest through the daytime period. Lows tonight will be in
the mid 50s to lower 60s with highs on Friday again in the
upper 80s to possibly lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CAMs show a decaying complex of showers/storms Friday night moving
in from the northwest. Some of the remnants may bring some showers
into our far western counties Friday night, but model soundings do
show a pretty dry boundary layer that will have to be overcome. Will
keep a slight chance PoP mention in the grids, but not overly
confident in measurable precip from this.

Seasonably warm conditions persist throughout the weekend as subtle
H5 ridging builds in. Many locations will observe highs in the upper
80s Saturday and Sunday, with some lower 90s mixing in as well. This
is 10-15 degrees above seasonal normals.

By Sunday night, the H5 ridge begins to break down as an elongated
trough starts to propagate through the Midwest region. This synoptic
feature may offer the best chance for widespread measurable precip
across our fa in quite some time. In fact, several ensembles are
even showing potential for near or greater than 1" of measurable rain
from Monday - Tuesday. Will have to monitor trends to see how this
system pans out, but there are increasing signals for decent
rainfall footprint.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Some vsby restrictions will be possible at KLUK for the first
hour or two of the TAF period due to some river valley fog.
Otherwise, expect scattered cu development later this morning
and into this afternoon. Any cu will dissipate toward sunset
with mostly clear skies tonight. Some river valley fog will be
possible again later tonight with some MVFR to IFR vsby
restrictions possible at KLUK late in the period.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...JGL