Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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993 FXUS61 KILN 191811 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 211 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in place across the region through the weekend. This will lead to mainly dry and continued warm conditions. A frontal boundary will move into the area early next week, bringing somewhat cooler temperatures and a chance for showers. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... No significant changes needed with the morning update. Weak surface high pressure and mid- level ridging will bring another day of warm and dry weather. Winds will be light out of the north. Efficient mixing and dry soils will cause dewpoints to fall off into the 50s this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... The mid level ridge axis will begin to flatten out tonight into Friday as some weak mid level energy rides over the top of it. This will likely lead to some increase in clouds across our northwest through the afternoon but it looks like any pcpn associated with the short wave should remain off to our northwest through the daytime period. Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s with highs on Friday again in the upper 80s to possibly lower 90s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... CAMs show a decaying complex of showers/storms Friday night moving in from the northwest. Some of the remnants may bring some showers into our far western counties Friday night, but model soundings do show a pretty dry boundary layer that will have to be overcome. Will keep a slight chance PoP mention in the grids, but not overly confident in measurable precip from this. Seasonably warm conditions persist throughout the weekend as subtle H5 ridging builds in. Many locations will observe highs in the upper 80s Saturday and Sunday, with some lower 90s mixing in as well. This is 10-15 degrees above seasonal normals. By Sunday night, the H5 ridge begins to break down as an elongated trough starts to propagate through the Midwest region. This synoptic feature may offer the best chance for widespread measurable precip across our fa in quite some time. In fact, several ensembles are even showing potential for near or greater than 1" of measurable rain from Monday - Tuesday. Will have to monitor trends to see how this system pans out, but there are increasing signals for decent rainfall footprint. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail across most of the TAF sites through the period under weak high pressure. Mostly clear skies and light winds will allow river valley fog to develop, mainly affecting LUK toward sunrise. Scattered showers and perhaps a storm may develop toward the end of the 30-hour CVG forecast period, but chances are too low for a mention in the TAF at this time. OUTLOOK...Hazardous weather is not expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Clark AVIATION...