515
FXUS61 KILN 260820
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
420 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
As the remnants of Helene track north, rain will spread into the
area. In addition, it will become breezy on Friday. Low pressure
will then linger in the Ohio Valley through the weekend keeping
conditions unsettled.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper low over the lower Ohio Valley will drop south into the
mid South today. A disturbance rotating around the low will move
westward across the southern part of the forecast area this
afternoon. Remnant surface trough will become reoriented more
east-west across southern Ohio into Kentucky. This will result
in showers developing and moving west over mainly the southern
counties late this morning through this afternoon. Highs will be
in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The remnants of Helene will lift north and then curl northwest,
passing south of the forecast area, as it gets absorbed into the
preexisting upper low which will be shifting into the Tennessee
Valley.

Showers will be increasing in coverage, especially the latter
part of the night. The showers will pivot in a broad band on
Friday afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be 1 to 2 inches across
southern counties with less amounts further north,

In addition, winds will be increasing as the pressure gradient
tightens with the approach of the remnants. There will be a very
strong low level jet, but with a very moist environment, expect
mixing to not be very deep. However, it will not have to in
order to get some rather gusty winds. At this point, have kept
winds below advisory criteria, but there is certainly room for
those gusts to be higher.

There will be rather narrow diurnal range with lows in the 60s
and highs in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For Friday night, the remains of Helene continue to push west of the
area as it gets wrapped up into the mid level low in the lower Ohio
Valley. Helene`s continued weakening and westward progression will
bring a sharp rainfall cutoff from east to west across the mid Ohio
Valley, but some uncertainty in how quickly the lingering bands will
remain. Greatest confidence in higher precip chances is near the
Ohio/Indiana border and KY regions due south of Cincinnati. Winds
will also decrease Friday night as Helene continues to weaken and
push west.

Once remains of Helene get wrapped into the mid level closed low, it
remains just to the southwest of the forecast area through Saturday
morning before slowly becoming more broad and on a slow weakening
trend as it slowly pushes east and becomes centered roughly just
south of the Ohio River through the remainder of the weekend. Some
spread in the solutions for timing of the eastward progression of
the mid level low, but overall will bring periods of rain through
the weekend with a chance for thunderstorms on Sunday as the closed
low begins to open up with an approaching cold front to push toward
the region later on Sunday and into Monday. The front begins to push
through the region late Monday into Tuesday, bringing a more focused
chance for showers and storms. A return to mid level ridging and
high pressure with rising temperatures for Wednesday.

With plenty of cloud cover and moisture in the region, temperatures
will be in the mid 70s into early next week, with lows in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR ceilings are forecast to redevelop at the Columbus
terminals and then persist for the first half of the period
before finally scattering out. Elsewhere, some visibility
restrictions may occur in mist/fog early in the period.
Otherwise VFR conditions. Light winds will become northeast to
east during the day and very gradually strengthen.

OUTLOOK...Wind gusts at or above 30 kt as well as MVFR ceilings likely
Friday into Friday evening. IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities
also possible. MVFR ceilings possible again Saturday through
Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JDR
AVIATION...