689
FXUS61 KILN 230612
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
212 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold on
Sunday. A brief respite in the heat and humidity is expected on
Monday, before warmer and more humid air quickly builds back
into the region on Tuesday, along with chances for storms
Tuesday night through Wednesday. Drier and cooler conditions
will then return for the last part of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Heat Advisory was allowed to expire at 8 pm. Have seen a few
showers this evening across northern Kentucky and the Lower
Scioto Valley of Ohio. They have been isolated and driven by
daytime heating and are dissipating with the setting of the sun.
For the rest of the night expect mid to high level clouds
across the CWA. Late at night, Midwest convection, or whatever
is left of it, will approach the northwest portion of the CWA.
Convection should be weaker, but enough for chance PoPs across
east-central Indiana and west-central Ohio. Tonight will be
another warm one, with lows generally in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Progressive mid level shortwave to track thru the Great Lakes
Sunday. This will drive a surface cold front thru the area
Sunday afternoon. Pre- frontal showers and embedded thunder in a
weakening trends will be possible Sunday morning.

An increased threat for thunderstorms will develop during the
late morning into the afternoon with the approach of the cold
front. Model solutions continue to trend faster with this front.
Moderate instability develops ahead of the front. Shear looks
to be unidirectional with bulk shear of 20-25 kts. A few of the
stronger storms could produce strong to damaging winds with
DCAPE values forecast to be 1000-1200 J/KG. This potential for
severe weather will generally be along and east of I-71.

Storm chances diminish from northwest to southeast late in the
day as drier air filters in from the northwest with the passage
of the front.

High temperatures Sunday will be tricky given the frontal
passage. Forecast highs to range from the mid 80s northwest to
near 90 southeast.

Northwest flow develops Sunday night with high pressure nosing
into the area offering cooler and drier conditions. Low
temperatures generally in the lower and middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure and dry air are forecast for Monday into Tuesday.
The threat for showers begins late Tuesday ahead of a cold
front. Carrying likely to categorical pops for showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday with frontal passage. High pressure
settling over the Great Lakes will provide dry weather Thursday
and Friday. The next front may bring a few more showers on
Saturday.

Temperatures fluctuating in relation to frontal position will begin
with highs in the mid and upper 80s on Monday, rising back into the
90s Tuesday under a surge of warm advection ahead of the first cold
front. Readings slip a few degrees to around 90 on Wednesday thanks
to cloud and precip along the front. Highs fall back to the 80s
Thursday in cold advection behind the front, before rising back into
the 90s Friday and Saturday in another round of warm advection ahead
of the second cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A few VFR Cu continue to percolate about the area, with
increasing/thickening mid/high clouds set to move into the local
area within the first few hours of the TAF period. This will be
accompanied by a weakening/decaying broken line of SHRA/TSRA,
but latest guidance suggests the activity will hold together
through most, if not all, of the local area between about
12z-15z. Some brief MVFR VSBYs will be possible with the
heaviest activity. Behind the morning SHRA/TSRA, there may be a
brief break before ISO/SCT convection redevelops, especially
by/after 17z. This will be most favored for locales near/SE of
I-71 until about 21z-22z before activity moves to the SE of the
local terminals thereafter.

Some VFR CIGs are expected, with borderline MVFR CIGs possible
at nrn sites of KDAY/KILN/KCMH/KLCK between about 14z-17z.
However, did not yet have confidence to add MVFR CIGs to the
fcst at any of these sites, but it is mentioned here for
awareness purposes.

SW winds around 8-10kts will increase to 12-15kts, with gusts
between 20-25kts, developing by/after 15z. A wind shift to out
of the NW will occur between about 21z-22z for the local sites,
with gustiness tapering off toward/beyond sunset.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible late Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...KC