816
FXUS63 KILX 141714
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1214 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty showers will continue through the weekend, but most will
  stay dry.

- Temperatures will be summer like through the new week with
  highs expected to be in the middle to upper 80s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Forecast looks on track today with minor adjustments to sky cover
with partly to mostly sunny skies overall. Warmer today due to
more sunshine than yesterday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s,
warmest over ne CWA. A strong 591 dm 500 mb high pressure ridge
near Georgian Bay is building back into IL and giving us the
return of heat and some humidity with dewpoints in the 60s.
Isolated shower or thunderstorm possible late afternoon/early
evening far southern CWA and far nw CWA, but most areas to stay
dry and very warm this afternoon.

07

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Radar imagery as of 2 am shows a few pockets of isolated showers
south of I-70 and near the I-74 corridor in eastern Illinois, tied
to moisture advection from the remnants of Francine. Francine has
become somewhat washed out with a weak area of low pressure
positioned over northern Mississippi/western Tennessee. This feature
will slowly drift eastward into the southeast US by early in the
week as strong upper high remains anchored over Great Lakes Region,
creating a blocking pattern. East-southeast winds on the western
fringes of the high will allow occasional shortwaves/ripples of
moisture to support spotty showers through at least Sunday night.

Temperatures through the upcoming week will be quite warm for the
middle of September when our normals should be in the low 80s
(today) to upper 70s (next weekend). The upper pattern will be
nearly unchanged through the early parts of the week until a
longwave western trough attempts to break down the ridge. A new
tropical system will lift north along the Atlantic Coast, becoming
stationary of the Mid-Atlantic region as it encounters the ridge.
Temperatures will range from the middle to upper 80s through the
upcoming week with little variance day by day. Precipitation
chances will increase over the Plains states midweek onward as
several shortwaves eject northward from a longwave trough over the
western US. Most of this activity looks to remain west of here,
keeping us precipitation free through most of the week. A cold
front will approach from the west next weekend, which could be our
next best hope for some rainfall if the upper ridge begins to
break down.

NMA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

VFR conditions will persist through this TAF cycle as a ridge of
high pressure works to keep fair weather conditions in place.
Mostly clear skies this afternoon will yield to increasing high-
level clouds this evening beneath light southeast winds.

MJA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$