Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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211 FXUS63 KILX 061723 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1223 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A small (15-30% chance) opportunity for rain arrives this weekend as MCS activity passes to our south Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. - Below normal temperatures will prevail through most of the forecast period. High temperatures stay in the mid to upper 70s through next Wednesday, before warming back up into the 80s for late next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1029 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Abundant sunshine prevails across central Illinois this morning, with 15z/10am temperatures already in the middle to upper 70s. 12z KILX upper air sounding suggests the well-mixed boundary layer will deepen to 8000-8500ft today. Mixing dry adiabatically from this level results in high temperatures mainly topping out in the lower 80s...with a few middle 80s south of I-70. As a result, have raised highs by about 2-3 degrees from the previous forecast. Will need to keep an eye on the winds as well, because speeds at the top of the mixed layer are not quite as strong as the NAM had forecast. Have maintained 25-30mph gusts for now, but these may not be achieved except across the far N/NW CWA this afternoon. Barnes && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 There is a secondary cold front entering central Illinois this morning. This will help dry us out the rest of the way, dropping dew points into the upper 40s to low 50s during the day. Behind the front, the pressure gradient has tightened and will deliver some breezier gradient winds to the CWA. The 00z HREF shows a 40-60% chance of wind gusts greater than 30 mph this evening after 5pm. Starting Friday, the synoptic pattern has an unseasonably deep upper- low anchored over Ontario and the Great Lakes and a strong high over the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains taking a stronghold over central Illinois. Central Illinois will remain sandwiched between these two features embedded within deep-layer northwesterly flow. The forecast will remain mostly dry, but some MCS activity this weekend to our south/southwest could bring some rain up our way. There is a slight chance (15-30%) that the precipitation could be as far north as a Lincoln to Champaign line Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. The temperatures will continue to be slightly below normal through the extended forecast. High temperatures stay in the mid to upper 70s through next Wednesday, before warming back up into the 80s to near 90 for late next week. Overnight lows will dip down into the 50s through Tuesday night, warming back into the 60s for late week. Copple && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period. Other than a period of FEW-SCT diurnal Cu early this afternoon, skies will remain clear. NW winds will gust to around 25kt this afternoon...with the gusts subsiding by around 23z. Winds will drop below 10kt across the board by mid-evening, but will once again ramp up after sunrise Friday due to deep-layer mixing. Forecast soundings and numeric guidance support NW gusts of 20-25kt after 15z Fri. Barnes && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$