Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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207 FXUS63 KILX 162019 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 319 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Summer-like warmth will continue across central and southeast IL through the weekend with highs ranging from the middle 80s to near 90. - Precipitation chances return this weekend into early next week with a series of frontal systems approaching IL. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 A Rex Block upper level pattern will continue across the country rest of this week, keeping it warm and fairly dry over central and southeast IL. Large high pressure ridge extending from New England westward across the Great Lakes region and into northeast and central IL will remain in place for a few more days, keeping similar weather conditions going across the area. One thing that has changed is the lower dewpoints in the 50s over much of central/se IL, ranging from upper 40s in Danville and Paris to 60-65F from Quincy, Macomb and Galesburg west. Partly to mostly sunny skies prevailed over much of area at mid afternoon with few to scattered cumulus clouds and patches of cirrus clouds. Nearly full sunshine was from Champaign and Terre Haute ne in the drier air mass. Very warm temps were mostly in the upper 80s to near 90F with mid 80s at Galesburg. Diurnally driven cumulus clouds to dissipate after sunset leaving fair skies tonight with light east winds. Lows tonight in the upper 50s and lower 60s, coolest in eastern IL. Latest CAMs show patchy fog forming overnight west of IL over parts of MO and Iowa with little or no fog over our CWA. A tropical system near the NC/SC coast will track nw toward Charlotte NC by sunset Tue and over the central Appalachians on Wed. Its rains will stay well east/se of Indiana and much of its high clouds staying se of CWA during midweek. Highs Tue-Fri should reach the upper 80s with some cities approaching 90F with a fair amount of sunshine. Lows Tue night in the mid to upper 50s, around 60F Wed night and low to mid 60s thereafter. A strong mid/upper level trof with 560 dm 500 mb cutoff low over central CA to eject a piece of energy ne into the upper MS river valley Thu night/Fri morning. We have just a slight chance of showers over the IL river valley, mainly nw of the IL river overnight Thu night. We have slight chance of convection again mainly nw of the IL river Sat and Sat evening, with 20-30% pops pushing eastward over central IL overnight Sat night into Monday as another piece of energy ejects ne from the central plains. Warm temps in the mid to upper 80s Sat with se IL near 90F, cool a bit into the low to mid 80s early next week, mildest in southeast IL due to more cloud cover and some shower chances. 07 && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 VFR conditions are forecast to continue across the central IL airports through 18Z/1 pm Tuesday. A Rex Block pattern is keeping surface and upper level high pressure ridge near IL next few days, and drier air in place to limit diurnal cumulus cloud develop to few-scattered. Will also of patches of cirrus clouds passing by. East to SE winds 5-10 kts this afternoon to be light east to ENE after sunset tonight, and east to ESE on Tuesday staying under 10 kts. No fog expected overnight due to dry air mass and soils in place. 07 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$