236
FXUS63 KIWX 260026
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
826 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated showers will continue to diminish this evening.

* Rain showers associated with a tropical system enter the
  forecast late Friday afternoon through the weekend.

* Seasonable temperatures are replaced by a temporary dose of
  fall by the middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

High pressure across the upper Midwest and inverted sfc trough
feature across the Ohio Valley has allowed for broad weak
low level boundary in this weak low level deformation flow.
Have had a few instances this evening of some funnel cloud
development in vicinity of this boundary west of KFWA with RAP
analysis depicting weak axis of sfc vorticity. Radar trends have
been on the decline over the past hour and continued
diminishment of weak low level instability should end isolated
shower potential. Some patchy shallow fog is possible overnight,
mainly across the far northwest. No major changes made to the
forecast at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Isolated showers will remain possible near a weak trough axis across
northern IN and srn MI this afternoon given sufficient boundary
layer moisture and diurnal heating. This trough washes out tonight
into tomorrow with drier easterly winds developing on the southern
fringe of a low level anticyclone building northeast into the Great
Lakes. Clearing and winds becoming light/variable for a time later
tonight may allow for some patchy ground fog to develop across
mainly nw IN and portions of southern MI.

Main focus into Friday and the weekend will turn to Hurricane Helene
remnants being absorbed into a leftover upper low over the western
TN Valley. Friday likely remains dry with northeast winds becoming
breezy in response to the sfc low center pivot north-northwest into
Kentucky for a time. A few bands of light rain may clip the area on
the northern fringe later Friday into Saturday, best chances south
of US 30/24. Seasonable temperatures expected otherwise before a
cold front brings a shot of fall-like temps by the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

An upper level low center across the Mid MS Valley will continue
to slowly sag southward into Thursday. This will allow some
drier air to initially push into the region tonight into early
Thursday. A weak low level boundary and strong sheared
vorticity max east of this height minimum is aiding in some
isolated shower coverage just west of KFWA, but expecting this
isolated shower potential to be very short-lived and diminished
shortly after 01Z. At this time expecting focus for any
afternoon isolated showers on Thursday to be confined southeast
of terminals with better low level moisture residing east of the
inverted trough axis across southwest Ohio. Some patchy fog is
possible at KSBN given light flow and recent rainfall today, but
otherwise unfavorable vertical moisture profiles should limit
extent and magnitude of this potential. Light winds tonight will
become northeast around 10 knots late Thursday morning.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Marsili
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Marsili