523
FXUS63 KIWX 071732
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
132 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous swim conditions today along portions of southeast
Lake Michigan beaches.

- Low chance for showers Saturday; otherwise dry through
  Thursday.

- Seasonally cool through early next week then warmer.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

A deep surface low was north of Lake Superior with drier air in
the low levels in place south of the low over the forecast area.
Cooler air will continue to spread over the area today with
highs staying below 80 degrees. A weak wave will bring a chance
for showers Saturday into early Saturday night. After coordination
with SPC and surrounding offices, have removed thunder Saturday
given the lack of instability. Also, BUFKIT soundings per GFS
shows some capping apparently due to modification of an EML.
305K isentropic lift shows only a small window favorable for
showers from about Sat/18Z to early Saturday night/03Z.

For next week, have removed rain/storms chances from the model
blend input and the ongoing forecast given lack of model
agreement on any system reaching the area. Temperatures should
stay cool in the wake of the upper low into early next week. The
most recent model runs have scaled back some on the arrival of
the very warm air expected late this coming week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 127 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Breezy afternoon continues with sustained winds of 15-20kt and
gusts 25-30kt out of the west-northwest. SCT/BKN CU field at or
above 6k ft AGL with prevailing VFR conditions. Winds relax
after 0Z. Some showers will be possible across N and NW Indiana
/ S Michigan by late morning Saturday with rain chances
spreading southeast through the day.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for
     INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Norman