Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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222 FXUS63 KIWX 020525 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 125 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain will exit the area early this morning. - Active pattern continues into next week with several chances for showers and thunderstorms. - Temperatures will remain near or above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 As expected, precipitation struggled to enter the area for the first half of the day despite increasing isentropic lift and a slow, but steady increase in moisture (low to mid 60s dewpoints already edging into SW areas). While radar returns are expanding, the precipitation has been quite light (sprinkles or light showers at best) as the area awaits the stronger forcing with the sfc low arrival into this evening. Pops were once again adjusted to match trends with the greatest focus for rainfall still existing from late afternoon into late evening west, expanding east with time. Weakening of upper level features, occlusion of the low and associated front and finally lack of overall instability, will limit overall QPF for the area. Also a west to east trend in drying will likely occur faster overnight, but some trapped low level moisture and lift could result in some pockets of drizzle and fog that will need to be watched by the evening/overnight shifts. A semi moist environment, combined with weak disturbances (some convectively induced) moving west to east through Tuesday will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. The best chances will key on timing of each wave in relation to peak heating as the overall flow will be rather stagnant until a stronger northern stream trough digs into the Plains. Models have demonstrated some consistency on one wave for Monday evening with model blend keeping likely pops in NW areas to cover. Not sure this will pan out as timing past diurnal peak may limit overall coverage. Greatest chances for showers and storms will exist with the aformentioned stronger trough mid week. Some timing issues remain with key features, resulting in large periods of higher pops that are likely overdone and will require changes in the coming days. Deep upper low will remain just north of the border through the remainder of the period with models varying on impacts to the region as some colder air tries to drop south sending temperatures back towards normal. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 125 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Weak low pressure system is currently moving across the area and will continue to support IFR/LIFR conditions through the early morning. Latest guidance...supported by upstream obs...indicates potential for LIFR ceilings and visibilities at KSBN in the 09-14Z window as winds veer northwesterly and advect very moist conditions currently over Lake MI into the area. Dense fog appears unlikely but many upstream obs show 1SM BR and 200ft ceilings. Higher moisture content is unlikely to reach KFWA before diurnal heating kicks in but ceilings will remain IFR and could drop to 400ft at times through the early morning. Conditions slowly improve by the afternoon with VFR expected after 18Z. Confidence in exact timing of transitions to MVFR and VFR remains low however. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...AGD