Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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798 FXUS63 KIWX 240504 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 104 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * Cooler and less humid into tonight and Monday. * A couple rounds of convection possible Tuesday into Wednesday, best chances Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night when there is the potential for severe weather. Confidence is low. * Hot and humid conditions may briefly return on Tuesday, dependent on clouds and storm coverage. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Drier and cooler air will continue to advect into the area this afternoon into this evening behind a cold front, with Monday looking spectacular with low humidity and ample sunshine. A compact, potent shortwave will drop southeast through the central and eastern Great Lakes late this afternoon into this evening, possibly bringing a few light showers or sprinkles to northern portions of the area during this time. The forecast late Monday night through Tuesday night becomes less clear as a theta-e ridge folds into the southern Great Lakes on the southern fringe of perturbed westerlies. For later Monday night and Tuesday morning, will have to monitor the track of a potential upscale growing MCS across northern WI. Layout of instability axis advecting east into IL and western IN, and the orientation of the LLJ into the developing convective system, does suggest a more southeast trajectory of a weakening MCS into the local area (1). On the other hand, later development of the MCS, or less organization, could lead to a miss north during the Tue AM hours (2). Which solution verifies will dictate what occurs Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. (1) would feature more cloud cover and cooler temps with the potential for renewed convection along the leftover composite outflow, which could be positioned south of the area by peak heating Tue. (2) would lead to a mainly dry/hot Tuesday (heat indices 95-100F) with a separate convective system (potentially severe, locally heavy rain) dropping through near a sfc cold front late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Lots of bust potential regarding PoPs/temps/sky/etc in the grids given the dependence of where and when convection occurs. Stay tuned to future forecasts with severe storms and dangerous heat both in play. Wednesday into Thursday does appear to be a little more straight forward. A more pronounced shortwave tracking through the Great Lakes will give a synoptic push of any cold front or composite outflow to the south Wednesday afternoon/night. Did retain a chance PoP for convection along this front on Wednesday, with Thursday looking similar to Monday with high pressure in control. The pattern Friday into Saturday could once again become periodically active given the progressive flow pattern and next surge of moisture into a developing frontal system. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1226 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Early this morning, I`ll keep an eye on an area of thunderstorms moving southeast through Michigan. Infrared satellite shows a significant weakening trend and a trajectory more east than south. Should this hold together, a brief period of BKN skies is plausible at KSBN. Otherwise, existing TAFs were in great shape and required no change. This is thanks to high pressure centered over Wisconsin which will move overhead through the day. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Steinwedel AVIATION...Brown