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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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863 FXUS63 KIWX 301753 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 153 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler today and tonight with few clouds. Highs today near 70 with lows tonight near 50. - Sunny and seasonably cool Monday with highs near 75. - Warm and humid with chances for thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Showers and storms had ended over the area earlier. The storms and had moved southeast as drier air was spreading into the forecast area causing the atmosphere to rapidly stabilize. Earlier (00Z) CAPE values were over northern Indiana were 2500 to 4200 J/Kg per SPC mesoanalysis, but had fallen to between 1500 and 2000 J/Kg. RAP model data eliminates CAPEs/instability by 10Z/6 AM EDT, so given these ongoing trends and dissipation of remaining storms over the forecast area, storm redevelopment is not expected. A cool airmass spreading over the area will bring chilly weather tonight with temperatures falling to around 50 degrees. Warmer and humid conditions will return Wednesday through Friday accompanied by several chances for showers and storms. The airmass spreading back over the area later this week will be similar to the one over the area yesterday with high precipitable water values. GFS BUFKIT Soundings initially favor more of a tall & thin type of environment with CAPEs (instability <1000 J) supporting locally heavy rainfall. However, ahead of the front Friday, the atmosphere is more likely to be somewhat more conducive for severe storms with greater instability. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 147 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Outside of a some diurnal cumulus clouds which should dissipate shortly after sunset and breezy conditions with gusts up to around 20 kts with northwesterly flow off of Lake Michigan that will also trend lower into the overnight period, VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the TAF period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Skipper AVIATION...Andersen