838
FXUS63 KIWX 150523
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
123 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions through Sunday.

- A prolonged heat wave will bring impacts to sensitive
  individuals beginning Monday and persisting through much of
  the work week.

- While widespread heavy rain or severe weather is not expected,
  a slight chance of shower and thunderstorm chances will exist
  each afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

In the wake of yesterday`s active weather, today and Saturday
will be warm (but not hot per say) and dry. Strong ridging
begins to build over the Appalacians during the weekend and by
Father`s Day, temperatures will soar into the low 90s for much
of the area. With PWATs still below 1 inch, we can expect rain
free conditions. However, be mindful of the heat you have
outdoor plans.

The hottest day of the week is likely to be Monday. There is
high confidence in afternoon temperatures topping out into the
upper 90s with dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s making it feel
about 5 degrees warmer than that. Closer to the ridge, northwest
Ohio will have the greatest chance to meet or exceed 100 for an
ambient air temperature as suggested by probabilistic model
guidance.

These hot temperatures will continue through at least next
weekend. However, the greatest combination of hot daytime highs
and warm overnight lows (in the 70s) will be from Monday through
Thursday. Individuals sensitive to heat should make
preparations or reschedule plans to a cooler part of the day.

One caveat to this prolonged heat wave is a rather messy
disagreement on afternoon rain chances and cloud cover next
week. Ensembles agree it precipitable water inching back above
1.5in by Monday thanks to Gulf return flow, with the NBM
indicating enough afternoon surface based instability to support
convection. Model soundings, particularly GFS, don`t look
terrible either. A large deciding factor will be how far
westward that ridge stays over the area, impeding the area with
subsidence aloft. Believe national blended guidance is a touch
on the low side, likely due to a slightly drier concensus by
ENS ECMWF, but also understand that a lack of spatial/temporal
confidence doesn`t justify much of a deviation from the output
at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 114 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A large surface high pressure area will remain over east North
America. Large scale subsidence with dry air in the low and mid
levels should prevent clouds except for some high clouds topping
the upstream ridge. VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Norman
AVIATION...Skipper