Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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561 FXUS64 KJAN 170601 AAC AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 101 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1026 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 An MCV circulation, which ejected out from the Central American Gyre over the Gulf of Mexico today, can be seen spinning over southwestern Mississippi on satellite imagery late this evening. With this feature and increased humidity in the region, some spotty showers are possible overnight. Then heading into the early morning to mid morning hours Monday, the next disturbance emanating from the Gyre will move inland and initiate another round of showers and thunderstorms over the forecast area. Thunderstorm chances will still follow mainly the diurnal trend with peak in the mid-afternoon, though high-res guidance suggests a little farther inland should have better chances tomorrow compared to this afternoon. High-res guidance also in fairly decent agreement showing best rain chances will be tied mainly to a a wave or two moving northward through the day, so do not anticipate storms everywhere all day. Storm activity should once again taper off around sunset or shortly after. /NF/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Tonight through next weekend... Through midweek (Wednesday): Wet start to the work week will remain. With continued southerly return flow of moist BL/mean deep moisture > 2 inches, with any storm chances winding down by early evening & rain chances gone by midnight & reinvigorating into mid-morning through the aftn on Monday. Synoptic pattern through mid-week will consist of deep mean mid-level 500mb ridging >596DM over the Mid- Atlantic states while moist southerly flow will keep rain & storm chances around through at least Tuesday. Large Central American Gyre (CAG) is ongoing & progged to persist across the Bay of Campeche, where the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has a high chance of development over the next week. This looks to be a somewhat "hybrid" system with east-southeasterly jet/fetch of the deepest tropical moisture, >2.5 inches, moving towards the TX coastline into midweek. With that being said, some light backbuilding flow & tropical moisture could bring some heavy downpours across the Pine Belt & Hwy 84 corridor through Monday, so localized flash flooding can`t be fully ruled out. However, confidence remains too low to introduce anything in the HWO at this time. With increased rain chances & cloud cover, highs & heat/humidity concerns will be more seasonable Monday, slightly less on Tuesday & on the upswing by midweek. The best moist convergence will occur over the southwestern half of the area Tuesday & drier air is progged to advect in from the northeast Wednesday, gradually shunting rain chances further southwest through midweek. Late week-next weekend (Thursday-Saturday): Ridging at the sfc & aloft is expected to fall slightly over the Mid-Atlantic region while build over the OH Valley to nearing the MS River Valley. This will help drive out most of the tropical moisture & convergence closer to the ArkLaTex & southwestern Gulf of Mexico, with any tropical development in near or south of the International Border. Highs will moderate from near to slightly seasonably warm in the upper 80s to low 90s, to seasonably warm in the mid-upper 90s. Rain chances will become confined to the Gulf Coast region Thursday through the latter half of the week. Another tropical wave is progged to propagate westward underneath underneath the subtropical ridge nearing the FL Peninsula to Carolinas. NHC has some low potential development of this system over the next week, with global consensus indicating a range from a weak tropical wave to an organized tropical system moving into the northeast Gulf of Mexico late week into next weekend. Right now, there could be enough confidence of Gulf moisture returning for an uptick in rain & storm chances southeast of the Natchez Trace. However, confidence remains on the low side at this point. /DC/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Patchy MVFR to locally LIFR ceilings have developed across parts of central and south MS and south LA early this morning, and will remain possible but mostly patchy through shortly after sunrise. Isolated SHRA will occur overnight, then will become more widespread after sunrise, with some TS also possible. Rain coverage will generally decrease after sunset. Local and relatively brief categorical reductions are possible in heavier RA. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 90 73 86 73 / 50 20 30 10 Meridian 91 71 88 72 / 60 20 10 0 Vicksburg 90 73 85 73 / 60 20 30 10 Hattiesburg 90 73 89 73 / 70 30 40 10 Natchez 88 72 81 72 / 70 20 50 20 Greenville 90 74 89 73 / 60 20 20 10 Greenwood 90 74 89 74 / 60 20 20 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ NF/DC/DL