Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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780 FXUS64 KJAN 240522 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1222 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1017 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Forecast thinking remains generally the same for the overnight hours with a few showers potentially developing as a weak boundary pushes southward across the area. Relatively warm air aloft (-1.7 deg C at KJAN on 00z raob) will inhibit potential for deep convection. /EC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Tonight and Tomorrow... Global guidance shows the mid/upper level high drifting further west towards the Carolinas. With the high shifting westward, this will allow for a weak frontal boundary to sink into our forecast area heading into the overnight period. Because of this, areas along the far northern portions of our CWA could see some isolated showers by early Monday morning. With increasing clouds overnight, nighttime temperatures will fall into the mid 70s to around 80. Heading into Monday, moisture will continue to increase across the area thanks to southerly flow aloft. As the aforementioned frontal boundary continues to sag further south across central MS, global guidance is highlighting a weak sfc front that will slop into northeast MS, stalling through the day. Isolated showers will be possible heading into Monday afternoon with slightly higher rain chances (around 30%) south of the I-20 corridor thanks to sufficient daytime heating. With the anticipated moisture heading into Monday afternoon, dewpoints will climb into the upper 70s areawide as afternoon highs peak into the upper 90s. This level of heat and humidity will result in afternoon heat indices between 105-112 degrees. As a result, a "Heat Advisory" has been issue for the entire CWA for this timeframe. /CR/ Monday night through Saturday night: Heat and humidity still look to be the main concerns through the period with Tuesday expected to be the most oppressive day. Come Monday evening our CWA will be on the eastern periphery of a large 592dam high while a stalled and nearly diffuse cold front will be just south of our CWA. A 1014mb high will be centered just northeast of our CWA The surface high will continue shifting east Monday night and Tuesday allowing for a light return flow back across our CWA. This will allow low level moisture increase while afternoon highs top out around 100F along our Highway 82 zones and upper 90s elsewhere. The hot temperatures will combine with the high humidity to result in peak heat index values between 105F and 110F and a Heat Advisory will likely be extended for the whole CWA Tuesday. By Wednesday morning the large mid level high will have become centered just south of the Four Corners region. A shortwave trough topping the ridge will spill into our region during the day and lead to a greater coverage of convection and perhaps an earlier start. Greatest coverage is expected over the eastern half of our CWA and the cloud cover associated with the convection is expected to help hold temperatures a few degrees cooler than on Tuesday. This will result in lower peak heat index values. The shortwave trough is still expected to be dropping south along the Mississippi/Alabama stateline Wednesday night helping to maintain rain chances over the southeast half of the CWA until tapering off from the northwest Thursday afternoon and early evening. Friday the mid level high is progged to build east back across our region. This will lead to warmer temperatures and raise the concern of heat stress again. Rain chances Friday and Saturday afternoons will be limited to our southern zones. /22/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites over the next 24 hours. A weak frontal boundary will sink south through the region overnight into this morning. This will result in some scattered clouds developing across the area through the forecast period, with some isolated convection possible as well through the forecast period, especially this afternoon across southern portions of the area. Calm to light southerly winds from the south overnight, will gradually give way to winds becoming more northerly around 5 knots in the wake of this boundary. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 96 75 97 76 / 30 0 30 10 Meridian 98 74 100 74 / 20 0 30 20 Vicksburg 96 76 97 76 / 10 0 20 10 Hattiesburg 96 76 99 76 / 40 10 50 10 Natchez 94 75 96 75 / 30 10 30 10 Greenville 99 78 100 77 / 0 0 10 10 Greenwood 98 76 100 76 / 10 0 10 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074. LA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ 19